Repsol (BME:REP) Is Up 5.9% After Q3 Profit Surge Despite Lower Sales Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Repsol reported its third-quarter 2025 results, revealing sales of €13.09 billion and net income of €574 million, compared to €13.60 billion and €166 million a year earlier.
• This sharp increase in quarterly profitability came despite slightly lower sales, highlighting a change in Repsol's earnings profile for the period.
• We will explore how the strong rise in quarterly net income factors into Repsol's overall investment outlook and future earnings trajectory.

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Repsol Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Repsol, you need conviction in its ability to balance earnings resilience from oil and gas with the long-term shift toward renewables. The company’s Q3 2025 jump in net income, even as sales dipped, has not materially shifted the most critical short-term catalyst, which remains the execution of its renewables investment plan, nor has it reduced the largest current risk: mounting regulatory and carbon price pressures that could challenge margins for hydrocarbon activities.

Among recent developments, Repsol’s October 2025 partnership with Norwegian Cruise Line to supply renewable marine fuels stands out. This move directly links to the catalyst of expanding into low-carbon markets, showing how new alliances may affect earnings potential as the business transitions away from its traditional fossil fuel base.

By contrast, investors should also be aware that if carbon pricing tightens faster than anticipated...

Read the full narrative on Repsol (it's free!)

Repsol's outlook anticipates €54.8 billion in revenue and €2.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This implies a 3.5% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of €1.9 billion from the current €668.0 million.

Uncover how Repsol's forecasts yield a €15.77 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen members of the Simply Wall St Community offered fair value estimates for Repsol between €10.19 and €28.20, underlining a broad range of viewpoints. While many expect growth from renewables, persistent regulatory pressure continues to weigh on expectations for core hydrocarbon profitability, consider how these opinions shape differing investment approaches.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Repsol - why the stock might be worth 40% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Repsol Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Repsol research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Repsol research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Repsol's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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