Amadeus IT Group (BME:AMS) Valuation Check As Q1 2026 Results And IDEMIA Deal Shape The Outlook

Amadeus IT Group (BME:AMS) is back in focus after reporting first quarter 2026 results, with sales of €1,682.6 million and net income of €357 million, alongside ongoing buybacks and the planned IDEMIA Public Security acquisition.

See our latest analysis for Amadeus IT Group.

Despite the solid Q1 figures, the share price has had a mixed run, with a 1 month share price return of 5.46% and a year to date share price decline of 18.94%, contributing to a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 22.98%. This suggests that recent earnings and the planned IDEMIA Public Security deal are being weighed against longer term concerns.

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With the stock down year to date despite recent earnings, buybacks and the planned IDEMIA Public Security deal, the key question now is simple: is Amadeus undervalued, or is the current price already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.9% Undervalued

At a last close of €50.84 against a narrative fair value of €62.71, Amadeus IT Group is framed as meaningfully undervalued, with that gap tied to how the business model responds to AI fears and cash generation.

The market has priced Amadeus as a "terminal decline" asset due to fears of AI disintermediation. However, operational reality contradicts this narrative. The company remains the central nervous system of global travel, generating high-quality cash flow with a pristine balance sheet.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what is built into that higher fair value? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, firm margins and a future earnings profile that treats Amadeus more like a core software utility than a shrinking travel contractor. The details behind those assumptions are where the story gets interesting.

Result: Fair Value of €62.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative can unravel if AI tools bypass Amadeus' platforms faster than expected or if the IDEMIA Public Security deal fails to deliver the planned benefits.

Find out about the key risks to this Amadeus IT Group narrative.

Next Steps

Given the mix of concern and optimism in this story, it helps to look past the headlines and weigh the trade off yourself using the 5 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Amadeus has you thinking more critically about pricing, risk and quality, it is worth widening the search before deciding where your next euro goes.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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