A Look at BBVA (BME:BBVA) Valuation Following New Share Buyback and Q3 Earnings Update

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) is in the spotlight after announcing a new share buyback program, which represents an important capital management step for shareholders. This comes shortly after its third-quarter earnings update.

See our latest analysis for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.

After unveiling the share buyback program and delivering steady third-quarter results, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria has seen impressive share price momentum. The stock has soared over 18% in the past month, while its year-to-date share price return stands above 100%. Looking longer term, a total shareholder return of more than 570% over five years highlights how much value investors holding the stock have realized as sentiment and performance have shifted.

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With BBVA’s share price rallying so strongly and a new buyback in play, the key question now is whether the stock is still trading below its true value, or if markets have already priced in the bank’s next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 8% Overvalued

With Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s narrative fair value sitting at €17.45 per share, compared to a recent close of €18.88, current prices trade above what analysts believe the business is worth today. This context lays the groundwork for a closer look at what’s driving this market view.

BBVA’s ongoing investment and leadership in digital transformation, including increased AI-driven productivity and cost-containment initiatives, should drive further cost efficiencies, improve customer acquisition, and enhance net margins over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know exactly which digital moves are baked into this fair value? The growth assumptions behind this figure stretch beyond traditional banking, with bold margin bets and efficiency targets. Curious if these projections are realistic or too optimistic? Unlock the narrative’s inner workings and see the details that set this valuation apart.

Result: Fair Value of €17.45 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent emerging market volatility or sharper than expected declines in interest rates could quickly undermine BBVA's bullish earnings trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model Says “Undervalued”

While the fair value narrative sees BBVA as overvalued at current prices, our SWS DCF model suggests a different story. According to this approach, BBVA is trading nearly 28% below its estimated fair value of €26.32 per share. This indicates substantial upside potential. Whose numbers best capture BBVA’s true worth?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to analyze the data differently, it only takes a few minutes to build your own story. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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