Should You Rely On Genmab's (CPH:GMAB) Earnings Growth?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 28, 2021
CPSE:GMAB

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Genmab (CPH:GMAB).

We like the fact that Genmab made a profit of kr.5.65b on its revenue of kr.11.0b, in the last year. Happily, it has grown both its profit and revenue over the last three years, as you can see in the chart below.

See our latest analysis for Genmab

earnings-and-revenue-history
CPSE:GMAB Earnings and Revenue History January 28th 2021

Importantly, statutory profits are not always the best tool for understanding a company's true earnings power, so it's well worth examining profits in a little more detail. So today we'll look at what Genmab's cashflow tells us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Zooming In On Genmab's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, Genmab recorded an accrual ratio of -1.22. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of kr.7.1b, well over the kr.5.65b it reported in profit. Genmab's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

Our Take On Genmab's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Genmab's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think Genmab's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Better yet, its EPS are growing strongly, which is nice to see. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. So feel free to check out our free graph representing analyst forecasts.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Genmab's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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