Step by step through the calculation
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow estimate
|Levered FCF (€, Millions)||€802.78||€814.95||€849.49||€861.33||€910.50|
|Source||Analyst x15||Analyst x15||Analyst x11||Analyst x3||Analyst x2|
|Present Value Discounted @ 8.11%||€742.57||€697.29||€672.33||€630.57||€616.57|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €3.36b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 0.5%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €910.50m × (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (8.1% – 0.5%) = €12.10b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = €12.10b ÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)5 = €8.19b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €11.55b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €3.88. Relative to the current share price of €3.53, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 9.08% discount to what it is available for right now.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Telefónica Deutschland Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For O2D, there are three key aspects you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does O2D have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does O2D’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of O2D? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every DE stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.