Here's Why We Don't Think SMA Solar Technology's (ETR:S92) Statutory Earnings Reflect Its Underlying Earnings Potential

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 21, 2021
XTRA:S92

As a general rule, we think profitable companies are less risky than companies that lose money. However, sometimes companies receive a one-off boost (or reduction) to their profit, and it's not always clear whether statutory profits are a good guide, going forward. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months SMA Solar Technology made a profit of €11.1m on revenue of €1.06b.

View our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology

earnings-and-revenue-history
XTRA:S92 Earnings and Revenue History February 22nd 2021

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll look at what SMA Solar Technology's cashflow, tax benefits and unusual items tell us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At SMA Solar Technology's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

SMA Solar Technology has an accrual ratio of 0.31 for the year to September 2020. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of €11.1m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through €56m in the last year. We also note that SMA Solar Technology's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of €56m. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that SMA Solar Technology's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by €2.5m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that SMA Solar Technology received a tax benefit of €4.8m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. And since it previously lost money, it may well simply indicate the realisation of past tax losses. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On SMA Solar Technology's Profit Performance

Summing up, SMA Solar Technology's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that SMA Solar Technology'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing SMA Solar Technology at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for SMA Solar Technology you should be mindful of and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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