Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:1MJ using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use
analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:1MJ DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
J.Jill's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
J.Jill's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
J.Jill's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
J.Jill's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
J.Jill's revenue is expected to grow by 3.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
J.Jill's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
5/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Ms. Linda Heasley has been the Chief Executive Officer of J.Jill, Inc. since April 16, 2018 and has also been its President since December 6, 2018. Ms. Heasley was the Chief Executive Officer of The Honey Baked Ham Company, LLC from February 6, 2017 to April 16, 2018. Prior to joining The Honey Baked Ham Company, Ms. Heasley served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Plus Fashion Segment at Ascena Retail Group Inc. from October 4, 2016 to February 2017. Ms. Heasley served as the Chief Executive Officer and President of Lane Bryant, Inc. from February 18, 2013 to February 2017. Ms. Heasley joined ascena's Lane Bryant division from The Limited Stores. She served as the Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer at Limited Stores LLC from August 2007 to February 2013. She served as the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Co-President at Limited Stores, LLC until February 15, 2013. She has held senior leadership roles at CVS Health Corporation, Timberland LLC, Body Works and L Brands, Inc. and Limited Brands, Inc. She has been a Director of Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. since May 4, 2017. She has been a Director of J.Jill, Inc. since March 2017. Ms. Heasley has held numerous senior leadership roles at Timberland, Limited Brands, Inc. and CVS Caremark. Ms. Heasley holds a B.A. degree from Harvard University and earned her M.B.A. from the John Anderson School of Management, UCLA.
Insufficient data for Linda to compare compensation growth.
Linda 's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the J.Jill management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
CEO, President & Director
Executive VP and Chief Financial & Operating Officer
Chief Information Officer & Senior VVP
Executive VP and Chief Marketing & Brand Development Officer
Senior VP & Chief Merchandising Officer
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the J.Jill board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
J.Jill, Inc. operates as an Omni channel retailer women’s apparel under the J.Jill brand name in the United States. The company offers knit and woven tops, bottoms, and dresses, as well as sweaters and outerwear; and complementary footwear and accessories, including scarves, jewelry, and hosiery for misses, petites, and women. Its customers comprise women in 40-65 age range. The company markets its products through retail stores, Website, and catalogs. As of March 15, 2018, it operated approximately 270 stores. J.Jill, Inc. is headquartered in Quincy, Massachusetts.
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