DB:4F31

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a real estate lot development company.


Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Forestar Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: 4F31 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-8.9%

4F31

-4.9%

DE Real Estate

-9.1%

DE Market


1 Year Return

16.4%

4F31

6.9%

DE Real Estate

2.9%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: 4F31 exceeded the German Real Estate industry which returned 8.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 4F31 exceeded the German Market which returned 6.5% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

4F31IndustryMarket
7 Day-8.9%-4.9%-9.1%
30 Day-4.4%-0.8%-7.2%
90 Day-5.4%5.8%-6.5%
1 Year16.4%16.4%9.9%6.9%6.1%2.9%
3 Yearn/a46.4%35.2%3.5%-5.6%
5 Yearn/a82.9%56.4%8.0%-6.8%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Forestar Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Forestar Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

16.83x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4F31's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 4F31's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: 4F31 is poor value based on its PE Ratio (17.9x) compared to the Real Estate industry average (14.2x).

PE vs Market: 4F31 is good value based on its PE Ratio (17.9x) compared to the German market (20x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 4F31 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: 4F31 is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the DE Real Estate industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Forestar Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

39.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 4F31's forecast earnings growth (39.7% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: 4F31's earnings (39.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (13.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 4F31's revenue (21.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 4F31's revenue (21.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if 4F31's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Forestar Group performed over the past 5 years?

37.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 4F31 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 4F31's current net profit margins (7.3%) are lower than last year (61.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 4F31's earnings have grown significantly by 37.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 4F31's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 4F31 had negative earnings growth (-35.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Real Estate industry average (7.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: 4F31's Return on Equity (6%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Forestar Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 4F31's short term assets ($385.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($201.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: 4F31's short term assets ($385.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($452.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 4F31's debt to equity ratio (56%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 4F31's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 61% to 56% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 4F31's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: 4F31 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: 4F31 has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: 4F31's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Forestar Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.5%markettop25%3.9%industryaverage2.7%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 4F31's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 4F31's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 4F31's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 4F31's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of 4F31's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the German market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dan Bartok (63yo)

2.2yrs

Tenure

US$1,248,260

Compensation

Mr. Daniel C. Bartok, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Forestar Group Inc since December 29, 2017. Mr. Bartok joins Forestar Group Inc with more than 35 years of experience in real es ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD1.25M) is about average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD1.20M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dan's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Donald Tomnitz
Executive Chairman of the Board2.3yrsUS$1.27m0.047% $395.4k
Daniel Bartok
Chief Executive Officer2.2yrsUS$1.25m0.027% $227.4k
Bill Wheat
Principal Financial Officer0.3yrsno data0.042% $349.1k
Aron Odom
Principal Accounting Officer0.3yrsno datano data
Matthew Stark
Senior VP & General Counsel0yrsno datano data
Michael Quinley
President of East Region2.3yrsUS$657.00kno data
Tom Burleson
President of West Region17.1yrsno datano data
Mary Cowser
Senior Vice President of Real Estate Market Research & Investment13.1yrsno datano data
Ashley Dagley
VP & Corporate Secretary0yrsno datano data

2.3yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: 4F31's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Donald Tomnitz
Executive Chairman of the Board2.3yrsUS$1.27m0.047% $395.4k
Samuel Fuller
Independent Director2.3yrsUS$128.22k0.0083% $69.8k
Lisa Jamieson
Independent Director0.5yrsUS$16.25kno data
G. Ringler
Independent Director2.3yrsUS$128.22k0.0042% $34.9k
Donald Spitzer
Independent Director2.3yrsUS$128.22k0.0083% $69.8k

2.3yrs

Average Tenure

71yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: 4F31's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.7%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Forestar Group Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Forestar Group Inc.
  • Ticker: 4F31
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 1955
  • Industry: Real Estate Development
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Market Cap: US$920.166m
  • Listing Market Cap: US$838.363m
  • Shares outstanding: 48.03m
  • Website: https://www.forestar.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Forestar Group Inc.
  • 2221 East Lamar Boulevard
  • Suite 790
  • Arlington
  • Texas
  • 76006
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FORNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDDec 2007
4F31DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURDec 2007

Biography

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a real estate lot development company. It engages in the acquisition, entitlement, and development of infrastructure for single-family residential communities. Forestar Group Inc. sells residential lots primarily to homebuilders. The company was incorporated in 1955 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas. Forestar Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/27 23:02
End of Day Share Price2020/02/27 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/09/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.