While Patrizia AG (ETR:PAT) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the XTRA. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Patrizia’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's the opportunity in Patrizia?
Patrizia appears to be expensive according to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Patrizia’s ratio of 51.61x is above its peer average of 16.74x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Real Estate industry. Furthermore, Patrizia’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.
What kind of growth will Patrizia generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 91% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Patrizia. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in PAT’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe PAT should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on PAT for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for PAT, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about Patrizia as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Patrizia.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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