DB:37T

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Tocagen Inc., a clinical-stage cancer-selective gene therapy company, focuses on developing and commercializing product candidates designed to activate a patient's immune system against their cancer.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 63.63% per year

Risk Analysis

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($36K)

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

+ 2 more risks


Snowflake Analysis

Imperfect balance sheet with limited growth.

Share Price & News

How has Tocagen's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: 37T's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

11.2%

37T

-1.8%

DE Biotechs

0.1%

DE Market


1 Year Return

-94.8%

37T

7.2%

DE Biotechs

14.1%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: 37T underperformed the German Biotechs industry which returned 7.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 37T underperformed the German Market which returned 14.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

37TIndustryMarket
7 Day11.2%-1.8%0.1%
30 Day-9.0%-2.9%0.2%
90 Day-11.4%5.8%3.3%
1 Year-94.8%-94.8%7.5%7.2%17.6%14.1%
3 Yearn/a42.8%41.2%14.8%4.8%
5 Yearn/a11.6%9.3%22.2%5.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Tocagen's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Tocagen undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

0.59x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 37T's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 37T's fair value to establish if it is undervalued.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: 37T is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Biotechs industry average.

PE vs Market: 37T is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the German market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 37T's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: 37T is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.7x) compared to the DE Biotechs industry average (3.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Tocagen forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

41.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 37T is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: 37T is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: 37T is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 37T's revenue (63.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 37T's revenue (63.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if 37T's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Tocagen performed over the past 5 years?

-26.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 37T is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: 37T is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 37T is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -26.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare 37T's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: 37T is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (-4.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: 37T has a negative Return on Equity (-366.34%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Tocagen's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 37T's short term assets ($59.5M) exceed its short term liabilities ($41.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: 37T's short term assets ($59.5M) exceed its long term liabilities ($9.2M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 37T's debt to equity ratio (140.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if 37T's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: 37T has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: 37T's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.1x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: 37T has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if 37T has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Tocagen's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.3%markettop25%3.6%industryaverage1.0%forecastin3Yearsn/a

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 37T's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 37T's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 37T's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 37T's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of 37T's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the German market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Marty Duvall (57yo)

3.3yrs

Tenure

US$2,019,839

Compensation

Mr. Martin J. Duvall, also known as Marty, has been Chief Executive Officer at Tocagen Inc. since November 02, 2016. Mr. Duvall served as Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President of Ariad Phar ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Marty's total compensation ($USD2.02M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD413.42K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Marty's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Martin Duvall
CEO & Director3.3yrsUS$2.02m0.057% $6.8k
Thomas Darcy
Co-Founder & Director12.5yrsUS$167.04k1.55% $186.1k
Douglas Jolly
Co-Founder and Executive VP of Research & Pharmaceutical Development12.2yrsUS$623.06k1.83% $220.0k
Mark Foletta
Executive VP & CFO3yrsUS$1.24m0.063% $7.6k
Harry Gruber
Founder12.5yrsUS$615.82k1.79% $215.2k
John Wood
Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs & Quality Assurance0.9yrsno datano data
Mohamed Ladha
VP and Head of Commercial & Medical Affairs1.4yrsno datano data
Fairooz Kabbinavar
Senior Vice President of Clinical Development0.8yrsno datano data

3.0yrs

Average Tenure

64yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: 37T's management team is considered experienced (3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Martin Duvall
CEO & Director3.3yrsUS$2.02m0.057% $6.8k
Thomas Darcy
Co-Founder & Director12.5yrsUS$167.04k1.55% $186.1k
Harry Gruber
Founder12.5yrsUS$615.82k1.79% $215.2k
Paul Schimmel
Independent Director5yrsUS$182.04k0.17% $20.5k
David Parkinson
Independent Director4.8yrsUS$174.54kno data
Faheem Hasnain
Independent Chairman5.3yrsUS$221.04k1.03% $123.8k
Franklin Berger
Independent Director5.3yrsUS$193.54k0.11% $12.8k
John Coffin
Member of Scientific Advisory Board0yrsno datano data
Joseph Sodroski
Member of Scientific Advisory Board0yrsno datano data
Stephen Russell
Member of Scientific Advisory Board0yrsno datano data

5.3yrs

Average Tenure

68yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: 37T's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 14.3%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Tocagen Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Tocagen Inc.
  • Ticker: 37T
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 2007
  • Industry: Biotechnology
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Market Cap: US$12.988m
  • Listing Market Cap: US$12.031m
  • Shares outstanding: 23.90m
  • Website: https://www.tocagen.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Tocagen Inc.
  • 4242 Campus Point Court
  • Suite 500
  • San Diego
  • California
  • 92121
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TOCANasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesCommon StockUSUSDApr 2017
37TDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURApr 2017

Biography

Tocagen Inc., a clinical-stage cancer-selective gene therapy company, focuses on developing and commercializing product candidates designed to activate a patient's immune system against their cancer. Its cancer-selective gene therapy platform is built on retroviral replicating vectors (RRVs), which are designed to deliver therapeutic genes into the DNA of cancer cells. The company’s lead product candidate is Toca 511 & Toca FC that is under Phase III clinical trial for recurrent high-grade glioma. It is also developing Toca 511 & Toca FC in a Phase Ib clinical trial for intravenous treatment of advanced cancers. In addition, the company is developing other RRVs to deliver genes to cancer cells against validated immunotherapy targets. The company has a license agreement with ApolloBio to develop and commercialize Toca 511 & Toca FC; and a collaboration agreement with NRG Oncology to develop a clinical trial utilizing Toca 511 & Toca FC for the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Tocagen Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in San Diego, California. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/19 23:20
End of Day Share Price2020/02/19 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.