DB:ZS2

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

TimkenSteel Corporation manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products worldwide.


Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has TimkenSteel's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: ZS2's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

ZS2

-0.2%

DE Metals and Mining

0.06%

DE Market


1 Year Return

-30.8%

ZS2

-19.8%

DE Metals and Mining

14.8%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: ZS2 underperformed the German Metals and Mining industry which returned -20% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZS2 underperformed the German Market which returned 17.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

ZS2IndustryMarket
7 Day0%-0.2%0.06%
30 Day1.5%-3.1%1.8%
90 Day38.9%-1.5%7.1%
1 Year-30.8%-30.8%-18.6%-19.8%18.4%14.8%
3 Year-51.2%-51.2%-40.6%-42.6%17.4%7.0%
5 Year-74.2%-74.7%-32.9%-36.6%27.9%10.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is TimkenSteel's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is TimkenSteel undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ZS2 (€6.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€22.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZS2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ZS2 is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Metals and Mining industry average.

PE vs Market: ZS2 is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the German market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ZS2's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ZS2 is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.6x) compared to the DE Metals and Mining industry average (4.1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is TimkenSteel forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

91.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ZS2 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: ZS2 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ZS2's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ZS2's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ZS2's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ZS2's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.6%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has TimkenSteel performed over the past 5 years?

-33.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ZS2 is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: ZS2 is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ZS2 is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -33.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ZS2's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: ZS2 is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (-9.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: ZS2 has a negative Return on Equity (-7.4%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is TimkenSteel's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ZS2's short term assets ($418.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($122.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: ZS2's short term assets ($418.0M) exceed its long term liabilities ($385.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ZS2's debt to equity ratio (31.2%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ZS2's debt to equity ratio has increased from 15.8% to 31.2% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: ZS2 has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: ZS2's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.2x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable ZS2 has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: ZS2 is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, even with free cash flow being positive and shrinking by -42.2% per year.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is TimkenSteel's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.5%industryaverage6.2%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ZS2's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ZS2's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ZS2's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ZS2's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: ZS2 is not paying a notable dividend for the German market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of ZS2's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the German market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of TimkenSteel's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Terry Dunlap (60yo)

0.3yrs

Tenure

US$206,702

Compensation

Mr. Terry L. Dunlap has been a Director of Principal of Sweetwater LLC since January 2015. He serves as Interim Chief Executive Officer and President at TimkenSteel Corporation in October 9, 2019. Mr. Dunl ...


Management Age and Tenure

1.2yrs

Average Tenure

57.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: ZS2's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

61yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ZS2's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Sell€9,40510 Sep 19
Gabelli & Company Investment Advisers, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares1,500
Max Price€6.27
Sell€237,72010 Sep 19
GAMCO Investors, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares95,509
Max Price€8.28
Buy€35,57310 Sep 19
GAMCO Investors, Inc.
EntityCompany
Shares37,300
Max Price€6.22
Sell€010 Sep 19
Teton Advisors, Inc
EntityCompany
Shares215,900
Max Price€6.55
Buy€191,49805 Sep 19
Ward Timken
EntityIndividual
Shares40,000
Max Price€5.27
Buy€5,77104 Sep 19
Frank DiPiero
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
Executive VP
Shares1,250
Max Price€4.62
Buy€164,81706 Aug 19
Ward Timken
EntityIndividual
Shares30,000
Max Price€5.49
Buy€43,68706 Aug 19
Kristopher Westbrooks
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
Executive VP & CFO
Shares7,350
Max Price€5.94
Buy€67,33823 May 19
Ronald Rice
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares10,000
Max Price€6.73

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Terry Dunlap (60yo)

    Interim CEO

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$206.70k
  • Elaine M. Reolfi

    Executive Vice President of HR & Corporate Relations

    • Tenure: 1yrs
  • Frank DiPiero (63yo)

    Executive VP

    • Compensation: US$1.06m
  • Jennifer Beeman

    Senior Manager of Communications & Investor Relations

    • Tom Moline (56yo)

      Executive Vice President of Commercial Operations

      • Compensation: US$678.59k
    • Kris Westbrooks (41yo)

      Executive VP & CFO

      • Tenure: 1.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$593.64k
    • Kevin Raketich

      Executive Vice President of Strategy & Corporate Development

      • Tenure: 3yrs
    • Amanda Sterling

      Vice President of Audit & Transactional Services

      • Tenure: 4yrs
    • Bill Bryan (59yo)

      Executive Vice President of Manufacturing

      • Compensation: US$688.96k
    • Nicholas Yacobozzi (34yo)

      Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer

      • Tenure: 0.4yrs

    Board Members

    • Leila Vespoli (59yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 0.2yrs
    • Ron Rice (56yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5yrs
      • Compensation: US$206.70k
    • Terry Dunlap (60yo)

      Interim CEO

      • Tenure: 0.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$206.70k
    • Diane Creel (71yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6yrs
      • Compensation: US$209.20k
    • John Reilly (75yo)

      Chairman of the Board & Lead Director

      • Tenure: 0.3yrs
      • Compensation: US$236.70k
    • Randy Wotring (62yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6yrs
      • Compensation: US$206.70k
    • Joe Carrabba (66yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6yrs
      • Compensation: US$199.20k
    • Don Misheff (62yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 6yrs
      • Compensation: US$221.70k
    • Marvin Riley (44yo)

      Additional Independent Director

      • Tenure: 1.4yrs
      • Compensation: US$155.82k
    • Randall Edwards (60yo)

      Independent Director

      • Tenure: 5yrs
      • Compensation: US$206.70k

    Company Information

    TimkenSteel Corporation's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


    Key Information

    • Name: TimkenSteel Corporation
    • Ticker: ZS2
    • Exchange: DB
    • Founded: 1899
    • Industry: Steel
    • Sector: Materials
    • Market Cap: US$331.669m
    • Listing Market Cap: US$299.000m
    • Shares outstanding: 44.82m
    • Website: https://www.timkensteel.com

    Number of Employees


    Location

    • TimkenSteel Corporation
    • 1835 Dueber Avenue SW
    • Canton
    • Ohio
    • 44706
    • United States

    Listings

    TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
    TMSTNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesUSUSDJun 2014
    ZS2DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURJun 2014

    Biography

    TimkenSteel Corporation manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products worldwide. The company offers carbon, micro-alloy, and alloy steel ingots, bars, tubes, and billets; and precision steel components, as well as supplies machining and thermal treatment services. It also manages raw material recycling programs. The company’s products are used in oil country drill pipes; bits and collars; gears; hubs; axles; crankshafts and connecting rods; bearing races and rolling elements; bushings; fuel injectors; wind energy shafts; anti-friction bearings; and other applications. It sells its products and services to the oil and gas, oil country tubular goods, automotive, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors. TimkenSteel Corporation was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio. 


    Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

    All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
    DataLast Updated (UTC time)
    Company Analysis2020/01/18 21:42
    End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
    Earnings2019/09/30
    Annual Earnings2018/12/31


    Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.