Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:AIW using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use
analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:AIW DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
The current share price of
is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a
for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Aldridge Minerals's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Aldridge Minerals has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Metals and Mining industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Aldridge Minerals's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Aldridge Minerals's earnings growth to the Germany market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Aldridge Minerals's revenue growth to the Germany market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Aldridge Minerals is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Aldridge Minerals is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Aldridge Minerals's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
Metals and Mining
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Aldridge Minerals's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Aldridge Minerals's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Aldridge Minerals's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Aldridge Minerals's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Han Ilhan, MS, P.Eng., has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Aldridge Minerals Inc. since April 7, 2014. Mr. Ilhan served as Vice President of Projects at Alamos Gold Inc. since October 17, 2011 and its Country Manager of Turkey Operations. He served as the Vice President and Director of Global Mining Business at URS, where he provided engineering and environmental services to the mining industry in over 20 countries. His experience includes project identification, evaluation, planning and development, with a strong emphasis on environmental risk minimization and sustainable development. Additionally, as a part of project evaluations and risk management studies, he has interacted with various stakeholder groups, in addition to technical auditing and due diligence of operating and closed facilities. Mr. Ilhan's specific technical expertise in the mining industry includes engineering, environmental, social risk management and technical planning in the design and construction of heap leach facilities, water supply and diversion systems, pollution prevention measures, waste storage facilities and mine closure and reclamation projects. He has composed numerous engineering and environmental publications and is a distinguished speaker for various high-level mining industry conferences. Mr. Ilhan is a professional engineer and earned his Bachelor of Civil Engineering from Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey and Master of Geotechnical Engineering at Oregon State University.
Han's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Han's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Aldridge Minerals management team is about average.
President & CEO
CFO & Corporate Secretary
VP & Country Manager
Vice President of EPC
VP of Exploration & Yenipazar Branch Manager
Vice President of Finance
Consultant of Flotation
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Aldridge Minerals board of directors is about average.
Aldridge Minerals Inc., a development stage mining company, engages in the development and exploration of mineral properties in Turkey. Its principal property is the Yenipazar Project, a gold-silver-copper-lead-zinc mineral deposit, which covers an area of 100 square kilometers and is located to the east-southeast of Ankara. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
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