DB:GU8

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Aviva plc provides various insurance and savings products primarily in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and South-East Asia.


Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with solid track record and pays a dividend.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Aviva's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GU8 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-6.0%

GU8

-4.8%

DE Insurance

-4.7%

DE Market


1 Year Return

-6.3%

GU8

21.3%

DE Insurance

8.3%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: GU8 underperformed the German Insurance industry which returned 26% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GU8 underperformed the German Market which returned 12.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GU8IndustryMarket
7 Day-6.0%-4.8%-4.7%
30 Day-3.7%-0.3%-4.0%
90 Day-2.0%3.7%-1.4%
1 Year0.9%-6.3%26.6%21.3%11.7%8.3%
3 Year-6.1%-21.6%61.2%41.7%11.4%1.6%
5 Year-18.9%-37.7%89.4%51.6%15.1%-0.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Aviva's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Aviva undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GU8 (€4.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€13.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GU8 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GU8 is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.9x) compared to the Insurance industry average (12.6x).

PE vs Market: GU8 is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.9x) compared to the German market (21x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GU8's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GU8 is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the DE Insurance industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Aviva forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

-2.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GU8's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: GU8's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GU8's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GU8's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GU8's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GU8's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.3%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Aviva performed over the past 5 years?

13.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GU8 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GU8's current net profit margins (6.3%) are higher than last year (3.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GU8's earnings have grown by 13.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GU8's earnings growth over the past year (104.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (13.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GU8 earnings growth over the past year (104.5%) exceeded the Insurance industry 7%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GU8's Return on Equity (13.2%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Aviva's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: GU8 has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: GU8's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 5.3x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: GU8's level of assets compared to its equity is very high.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if GU8 has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: GU8 reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if GU8 has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: GU8 has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if GU8 has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Aviva's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

7.92%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company7.9%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage3.7%forecastin3Years8.7%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: GU8's dividend (7.49%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.31%).

High Dividend: GU8's dividend (7.49%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.63%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GU8's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GU8's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (51.4%), GU8's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GU8's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (53.7% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Maurice Tulloch (50yo)

0.9yrs

Tenure

UK£2,195,000

Compensation

Mr. Maurice Ewen Tulloch, C.M.A. has been a Director of The Geneva Association since June 14, 2019. Mr. Tulloch has been Group Chief Executive Officer at Aviva Plc since March 04, 2019 and its Executive Di ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Maurice's total compensation ($USD2.84M) is below average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD4.38M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Maurice's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Maurice Tulloch
Group CEO & Executive Director0.9yrsUK£2.20m0.012% £2.2m
Jason Windsor
CFO & Executive Director0.4yrsno data0.00025% £44.8k
Erica Arnold
Chief Operating Officer0.4yrsno datano data
Christopher Esson
Group Investor Relations Director0yrsno datano data
Kirstine Cooper
Group General Counsel & Company Secretary9.2yrsno datano data
Roy Tooley
Head of Secretariat - Corporate0yrsno datano data
Sue Winston
Head of Corporate Reputation & Online Communications0yrsno datano data
Jonna La Toure
Senior Vice President of Communications - USA Region0yrsno datano data
Matt Saker
Chief Actuary for Europe Operations10.7yrsno datano data
David Frederick Rogers
Chief Financial Officer of Digital - Asia0yrsno datano data

0.9yrs

Average Tenure

52.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: GU8's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Maurice Tulloch
Group CEO & Executive Director0.9yrsUK£2.20m0.012% £2.2m
Jason Windsor
CFO & Executive Director0.4yrsno data0.00025% £44.8k
Adrian Montague
Non- Executive Chairman4.8yrsUK£638.00k0.0015% £266.8k
Guillermo de la Dehesa Romero
Chairman of Aviva Spain0yrsUK£109.00kno data
Patricia Cross
Independent Non-Executive Director6.2yrsUK£128.00k0.00077% £137.9k
Patrick Flynn
Independent Non Executive Director0.6yrsno datano data
Amanda Blanc
Independent Non-Executive Director0.08yrsno datano data
Belén Romana García
Independent Non-Executive Director4.7yrsUK£115.00k0.00026% £46.5k
Mark George Culmer
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director0.08yrsno data0.00080% £143.2k
Michael Mire
Independent Non-Executive Director6.4yrsUK£119.00k0.0013% £229.2k

2.7yrs

Average Tenure

58yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GU8's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Aviva plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Aviva plc
  • Ticker: GU8
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 1696
  • Industry: Multi-line Insurance
  • Sector: Insurance
  • Market Cap: UK£14.971b
  • Listing Market Cap: UK£17.904b
  • Shares outstanding: 3.92b
  • Website: https://www.aviva.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Aviva plc
  • St Helen’s
  • 1 Undershaft
  • London
  • Greater London
  • EC3P 3DQ
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
AIVA.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDJan 1992
AV.LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJan 1992
GU8DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURJan 1992
AVLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJan 1992
AVVI.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)SPON ADR EA REPR 2 ORD SHS GBP0.25USUSDOct 2009
GU8EDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)SPON ADR EA REPR 2 ORD SHS GBP0.25DEEUROct 2009

Biography

Aviva plc provides various insurance and savings products primarily in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and South-East Asia. The company offers life insurance, long term health and accident insurance, savings, pension, and annuity products; and lifetime mortgage products. It also provides insurance cover to individuals, and small and medium-sized businesses for risks associated primarily with motor vehicles and medical expenses, as well as property and liability, such as employers’ and professional indemnity liabilities. In addition, the company offers retirement income, home, motor, travel, commercial, private medical, critical illness, and income protection insurance products. Further, it provides investment management services for institutional pension fund mandates; and manages various retail investment products, including investment funds, unit trusts, open-ended investment companies, and individual savings accounts for third-party financial institutions, pension funds, public sector organizations, investment professionals, and private investors. The company markets its products through a network of insurance brokers, as well as MyAviva, an online platform. The company was formerly known as CGNU plc and changed its name to Aviva plc in July 2002. Aviva plc was founded in 1696 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/25 20:50
End of Day Share Price2020/02/25 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.