Stock Analysis

Fresenius Medical Care KGaA (ETR:FME) shareholders have endured a 54% loss from investing in the stock five years ago

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (ETR:FME) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 27% in the last quarter. But that can't change the reality that over the longer term (five years), the returns have been really quite dismal. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 58% in that time. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Of course, this could be the start of a turnaround.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

View our latest analysis for Fresenius Medical Care KGaA

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Looking back five years, both Fresenius Medical Care KGaA's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 12% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 16% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:FME Earnings Per Share Growth February 16th 2023

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Fresenius Medical Care KGaA's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Fresenius Medical Care KGaA the TSR over the last 5 years was -54%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Fresenius Medical Care KGaA shareholders are down 36% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 5.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Fresenius Medical Care KGaA better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Fresenius Medical Care KGaA , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About XTRA:FME

Fresenius Medical Care

Provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally.

Undervalued established dividend payer.

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