Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BST:CXC1 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
BST:CXC1 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Zoltav Resources's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Zoltav Resources's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Zoltav Resources's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Zoltav Resources has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Oil and Gas industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Zoltav Resources's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Zoltav Resources's earnings growth to the Germany market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Zoltav Resources's revenue growth to the Germany market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Zoltav Resources is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Zoltav Resources is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Zoltav Resources's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
Oil and Gas
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Zoltav Resources's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Zoltav Resources's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Zoltav Resources's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Zoltav Resources's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.3x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Tigran Tagvoryan has been the Chief Executive Officer of Zoltav Resources Inc. since April 1, 2019. Mr. Tagvoryan joined Zoltav as Deputy Chief Executive Officer in November 2018. He has significant senior level project development, finance, management and infrastructure experience within Russian supermajor oil and gas businesses. From 2013 to 2018, he led the Russian gas business development and strategy divisions of PJSC Rosneft Oil Company ("Rosneft"), the leader of Russia's petroleum industry. During his time at Rosneft, he was responsible for developing and implementing Rosneft's rapid gas production growth strategy. The business units he led were also responsible for evaluating all business development opportunities for Rosneft within the Russian gas sector. In parallel with these responsibilities, he also became General Director of a Rosneft-PJSC Sberbank joint venture established to finance infrastructure for major new gas projects. From 2002 until its acquisition by Rosneft in 2013, he held various positions with TNK-BP, one of Russia's largest oil producers. Between 2002 and 2008, as Deputy Director General of OAO East Siberia Gas Company, a joint venture between TNK-BP and the Irkutsk Oblast Administration, he managed the regional gasification project of Irkutsk Oblast from the giant Kovykta field in East Siberia. During his time at OAO East Siberia Gas Company, he was involved in all aspects of commercial development and latterly the construction of more than 100 kilometres of gas pipelines. In 2008, he moved to TNK-BP's Moscow headquarters where he focused on new business development in various roles including as Commercial Director of Gas and Power, Department Head of Gas Business Development and Vice President, Corporate Business Development. He holds a BSc in Business and Management from the University of Maryland University College and a higher degree with excellence in Management from Irkutsk State University.
Insufficient data for Tigran to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Tigran to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Chief Executive Officer
Chief Financial Officer
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Zoltav Resources board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Independent Non-Executive Chairman & Senior Independent Director
Zoltav Resources Inc. acquires, explores for, develops, and produces hydrocarbons in Russia. The company holds interests in the Bortovoy license covering an area of 3,215 square kilometers with proved plus probable reserves of 750 billion cubic feet of gas, and 3.9 million barrels of oil and condensate located in the Saratov region of south western Russia. It also owns interests in the Koltogor exploration and production license containing the Koltogor oil field covering an area of 528 square kilometers with proved plus probable reserves of 79.2 million barrels of oil equivalent located in the Khantiy-Mansisk Autonomous Okrug of Western Siberia; and the Koltogor exploration and production license 10 containing the West Koltogor oil field covering an area of 167 square kilometers. Zoltav Resources Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
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