XTRA:TUI1

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 56.6% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.01% per year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Profit margins (2.2%) are lower than last year (3.7%)



Snowflake Analysis

Very undervalued with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has TUI's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TUI1's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-5.2%

TUI1

-3.0%

DE Hospitality

0.3%

DE Market


1 Year Return

-29.2%

TUI1

-24.7%

DE Hospitality

13.8%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: TUI1 underperformed the German Hospitality industry which returned -15.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TUI1 underperformed the German Market which returned 17.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TUI1IndustryMarket
7 Day-5.2%-3.0%0.3%
30 Day-10.7%-7.8%1.7%
90 Day-15.0%-11.0%5.7%
1 Year-23.9%-29.2%-19.8%-24.7%17.4%13.8%
3 Year-14.8%-26.9%-12.9%-24.5%15.9%5.7%
5 Year-21.0%-36.4%-12.3%-29.2%27.9%10.6%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is TUI's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is TUI undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TUI1 (€10.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€24.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TUI1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TUI1 is good value based on its PE Ratio (15.2x) compared to the Hospitality industry average (20.5x).

PE vs Market: TUI1 is good value based on its PE Ratio (15.2x) compared to the German market (20.6x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TUI1 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TUI1 is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.8x) compared to the DE Hospitality industry average (2.3x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is TUI forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

14.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TUI1's forecast earnings growth (15% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.4%).

Earnings vs Market: TUI1's earnings (15% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the German market (13.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TUI1's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TUI1's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the German market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TUI1's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TUI1's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.2%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has TUI performed over the past 5 years?

29.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TUI1 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TUI1's current net profit margins (2.2%) are lower than last year (3.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TUI1's earnings have grown significantly by 29.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TUI1's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TUI1 had negative earnings growth (-39.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (-39.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: TUI1's Return on Equity (12.8%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is TUI's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TUI1's short term assets (€4.3B) do not cover its short term liabilities (€7.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: TUI1's short term assets (€4.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities (€4.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TUI1's debt to equity ratio (28.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: TUI1's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 58.3% to 28.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TUI1's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (93.9%).

Interest Coverage: TUI1's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TUI1 has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TUI1's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 3.6x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is TUI's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.43%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase TUI before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.4%marketbottom25%1.3%markettop25%3.6%industryaverage5.5%forecastin3Years4.6%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: TUI1's dividend (5.03%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.38%).

High Dividend: TUI1's dividend (5.03%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.53%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TUI1 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: TUI1's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 6 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: At its current payout ratio (76.3%), TUI1's payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: TUI1's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (35.7% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of TUI's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

4.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Fritz Joussen (56yo)

3.9yrs

Tenure

€5,181,300

Compensation

Mr. Friedrich Joussen, also known as Fritz, has been the Chief Executive Officer of TUI AG since February 2016 and also served as its Joint Chief Executive since December 2014. Mr. Joussen has been the Cha ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Fritz's total compensation ($USD5.76M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD3.59M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Fritz's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

4.4yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: TUI1's management team is considered experienced (4.4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

7.3yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TUI1's board of directors are considered experienced (7.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Sebastian Ebel (55yo)

    Member of the Executive Board and CEO of Hotels & Resorts

    • Tenure: 5.1yrs
    • Compensation: €2.55m
  • Fritz Joussen (56yo)

    Chairman of Executive Board & CEO

    • Tenure: 3.9yrs
    • Compensation: €5.18m
  • Frank Rosenberger (51yo)

    CIO, Future Markets & Member of Executive Board

    • Tenure: 3yrs
    • Compensation: €2.46m
  • Hilka Schneider

    Group Director of Legal

    • Tenure: 5.8yrs
  • David Burling (51yo)

    Member of the Executive Board and CEO of Markets & Airlines

    • Tenure: 4.6yrs
    • Compensation: €2.50m
  • Birgit Conix (54yo)

    CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: €2.55m
  • Michael Röll

    Head of Group Communications

    • Erik Friemuth

      Group Chief Marketing Officer

      • Elke Eller (57yo)

        HR & Labour Director and Member of the Executive Board

        • Tenure: 4.3yrs
        • Compensation: €2.65m
      • Wolfgang Flintermann (50yo)

        Group Director of Financial Accounting & Reporting and Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 3.6yrs
        • Compensation: €100.00k

      Board Members

      • Dieter Zetsche (66yo)

        Chairman of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 0.7yrs
        • Compensation: €227.60k
      • Peter Long (67yo)

        Second Deputy Chairman of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 1.9yrs
        • Compensation: €332.00k
      • Edgar Ernst (67yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 8.9yrs
        • Compensation: €285.90k
      • Ortwin Strubelt (55yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 10.8yrs
        • Compensation: €212.10k
      • Andreas Barczewski (52yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 13.7yrs
        • Compensation: €185.90k
      • Frank Jakobi (57yo)

        Deputy Chairman of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 5.7yrs
        • Compensation: €288.00k
      • Anette Strempel (53yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 11yrs
        • Compensation: €164.10k
      • Angelika Gifford (54yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 7.8yrs
        • Compensation: €166.00k
      • Michael Pönipp (63yo)

        Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 6.8yrs
        • Compensation: €182.90k
      • Wolfgang Flintermann (50yo)

        Group Director of Financial Accounting & Reporting and Member of Supervisory Board

        • Tenure: 3.6yrs
        • Compensation: €100.00k

      Company Information

      TUI AG's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


      Key Information

      • Name: TUI AG
      • Ticker: TUI1
      • Exchange: XTRA
      • Founded:
      • Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
      • Sector: Consumer Services
      • Market Cap: €5.855b
      • Shares outstanding: 589.02m
      • Website: https://www.tuigroup.com/de-de

      Number of Employees


      Location

      • TUI AG
      • Karl-Wiechert-Allee 4
      • Hanover
      • Lower Saxony
      • 30625
      • Germany

      Listings

      TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
      TUI1DBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesRegistered SharesGBEURJan 1980
      TUIF.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesRegistered SharesUSUSDJan 1980
      TUILSE (London Stock Exchange)YesRegistered SharesGBGBPJan 1980
      TUI1XTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesRegistered SharesDEEURJan 1980
      TUI NBMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesRegistered SharesMXMXNJan 1980
      TUI1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesRegistered SharesDEEURJan 1980
      TUI1SWX (SIX Swiss Exchange)YesRegistered SharesCHCHFJan 1980
      TUILBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesRegistered SharesGBGBPJan 1980
      TUI1ETLX (Eurotlx)YesRegistered SharesITEURJan 1980
      TUI2BST (Boerse-Stuttgart)ADRDEEUROct 2008
      TUIF.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)ADRUSUSDOct 2008

      Biography

      TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services worldwide. It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, Blue Diamond, and TUI Magic Life brands. The company is also involved in the tour operation and airlines businesses. In addition, it operates cruise liners; and provides incoming agency services. The company operates a fleet of 1,600 travel agencies and online portals; 6 airlines with approximately 150 aircrafts; and 16 cruise liners, as well as approximately 380 hotels. The company was formerly known as Preussag AG and changed its name to TUI AG in June 2002. TUI AG is headquartered in Hanover, Germany. 


      Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

      All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
      DataLast Updated (UTC time)
      Company Analysis2020/01/25 21:26
      End of Day Share Price2020/01/24 00:00
      Earnings2019/09/30
      Annual Earnings2019/09/30


      Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.