Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:7AR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:7AR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Charah Solutions's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Charah Solutions's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Charah Solutions's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Charah Solutions's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Charah Solutions's revenue is expected to grow by 9.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Charah Solutions's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
Charah Solutions's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Charah Solutions is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
Charah Solutions's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Charah Solutions's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.7x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Scott Andrew Sewell has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Charah Solutions, Inc. since January 23, 2019. Mr. Sewell served as Chief Operating Officer of Charah Solutions, Inc. since 2013 until January 23, 2019. Mr. Sewell serves as the Chief Operating Officer at Charah, LLC. Mr. Sewell served as Vice President of Operations of Charah, LLC. since August 2009. Mr. Sewell joined Charah, LLC in 2008 and served as an Operations Manager and held the positions of Vice President of Operations and Senior Vice President of Operations until 2013. Prior to Charah, he served as a Project Manager of Bechtel Corporation from 2002 to 2007. He has also held professional affiliations as a Member of the Project Management Institute, a Member of the Association of Equipment Management Professionals, and is a Six Sigma Yellow Belt. Mr. Sewell holds a Bachelor of Science in International Business from the College of Charleston.
Insufficient data for Scott to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Scott to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Charah Solutions management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
Senior VP & Director
Interim CFO & Treasurer
Vice President of Process & Technology
Vice President of Investor Relations
Senior Vice President of Human Resources
Executive Vice President of Governmental & Environmental Affairs
Senior Vice President of Business Development
Vice President of Legal Affairs & Corporate Secretary
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Charah Solutions board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Charah Solutions, Inc. provides environmental and maintenance services to the power generation industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions; and Maintenance and Technical Services. The Environmental Solutions segment offers remediation and compliance services, including development, construction, and management of landfills for coal-fired power generation facilities, and new and existing ash ponds; and active pond management services, such as clean closure, cap-in-place, and design and construction of new ponds. This segment also sells recycling of recurring and contracted volumes of coal-fired power generation waste byproducts comprising bottom ash, fly ash, and gypsum byproducts for the use in various industrial purposes. The Maintenance and Technical Services segment provides fossil services, including coal ash management, silo management, on-site ash transportation, landfill management, and capture and disposal of ash byproducts, as well as staffing solutions for coal-fired power generation facilities; and manages combustion byproducts comprising bottom ash, as well as disposal of flue gas desulfurization gypsum, Pozatec/fixated scrubber sludge, and fluidized bed combustion fly ash. This segment also offers nuclear services consisting of routine maintenance, outage services, facility maintenance, and staffing solutions for nuclear power generation facilities. Charah Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
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