China National Complete Plant Import & Export Corporation Limited's (SZSE:000151) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

The China National Complete Plant Import & Export Corporation Limited (SZSE:000151) share price has softened a substantial 26% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Longer-term, the stock has been solid despite a difficult 30 days, gaining 19% in the last year.

Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies operating in China's Trade Distributors industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may still consider China National Complete Plant Import & Export as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.5x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

See our latest analysis for China National Complete Plant Import & Export

What Does China National Complete Plant Import & Export's Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at China National Complete Plant Import & Export over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China National Complete Plant Import & Export's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as China National Complete Plant Import & Export's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 60%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 28% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that China National Complete Plant Import & Export's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From China National Complete Plant Import & Export's P/S?

China National Complete Plant Import & Export's P/S remain high even after its stock plunged. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of China National Complete Plant Import & Export revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with China National Complete Plant Import & Export (including 1 which is significant).

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.