Alcon Inc. (VTX:ALC) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Investors in Alcon Inc. (VTX:ALC) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.9% to close at CHF62.88 following the release of its third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$2.6b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.48. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Alcon from 23 analysts is for revenues of US$11.2b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 9.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.0% to US$2.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.47 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Alcon

The consensus price target held steady at CHF79.38, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Alcon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF93.63 and the most bearish at CHF62.35 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Alcon'shistorical trends, as the 7.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.9% annually. It's clear that while Alcon's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF79.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Alcon analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Alcon's balance sheet, and whether we think Alcon is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.