Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for SWX:JOST using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
SWX:JOST DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
JOST Werke's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
JOST Werke's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
JOST Werke's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
JOST Werke's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
JOST Werke's revenue is expected to grow by 1.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
JOST Werke's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
4/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Lars Brorsen serves as Managing Director of Langholm GmbH. Mr. Brorsen has been the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Board at JOST Werke AG since July 2017. Mr. Brorsen is responsible for Marketing, Sales, Quality, Environment, Human Resources and Research & Development. In 2000, he joined the JOST Group as Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Brorsen serves as the Chief Executive Officer of JOST (G.B) Limited. He served as the Chairman of Management Board, Managing Director and the Chief Executive Officer at JOST-Werke Deutschland GmbH (Jost Werke Gmbh) until 2017. Since 1997, he served as President of MCC-Smart, within the DaimlerChrysler AG group. In 1978, Mr. Brorsen started his career as a trainee at TRW Carr Worldwide in Boston, United States. Mr. Brorsen served as Vice-President of TRW Inc. and Managing Director of TRW Occupant Restraint Systems Europe and Fastener Worldwide. He serves as the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Dinex. He served as Deputy Chairman/Vice Chairman of The Board of Directors at Bang & Olufsen a/s (alternate name: Bang & Olufsen Holding A/S) from 2007 to 2010. He serves as a Member of the Supervisory Board of JOST Brasil SAL, Caxias do Sul, Brazil. He serves as a Director of Jost-World GmbH. He served as a Director of Bang & Olufsen Holding A/S from 1998 to August 26, 2009. Mr. Brorsen holds a Degree in Business Management from the University of Odense, Denmark and a Degree of Economics from the University of Aarhus, Denmark.
Insufficient data for Lars to compare compensation growth.
Lars's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Switzerland.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the JOST Werke management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
CEO & Chairman of Management Board
COO & Member of Management Board
CFO & Member of Management Board
Chief Sales Officer & Member of Management Board
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the JOST Werke board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
JOST Werke AG manufactures and supplies safety-critical systems for the truck and trailer industry. The company offers truck and trailer components, including sensor systems and lubrication solutions, fifth wheel couplings and mounting plates, dual-height fifth wheel systems, sliders, kingpins, ball bearing turntables and slewing rings, landing gears, and hubodometers and axle caps; axle systems and its spare parts; and container equipment, such as components for intermodal transports, twist locks, bolsters, lifting frames for swap bodies, airbag lifting devices, and spare wheel holders. It also provides products for commercial vehicles comprising towing hitches and its spare parts, shunting couplings, traverses, varioblocs, adapter hitches, towing eyes and balls, wear gauges/tools, screw sets, and upgrade and repair kits; products for agriculture and forestry applications, including towing and ball hitches, drawbars, piton fixes, ladders, calotte and towing eyes, accessories, and spare parts, as well as support products for hitches; and drawbars. In addition, the company offers electro coating services for manufacturers and customers in various sectors, such as automobiles, commercial vehicles, agricultural, and forestry and construction vehicles, as well as their suppliers; and manufacturers of mass-produced cast and sheet metal components. It markets its products under the JOST, ROCKINGER, TRIDEC, and Edbro brand names. The company operates in Asia, Pacific, and Africa, as well as Europe and North America. The company was formerly known as Cintinori Holding GmbH and changed its name to JOST Werke AG in July 2017. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Neu-Isenburg, Germany.
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