Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Geberit AG (VTX:GEBN) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Our analysis indicates that GEBN is potentially undervalued!
What Is Geberit's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Geberit had debt of CHF1.11b, up from CHF786.7m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CHF199.4m, its net debt is less, at about CHF907.1m.
A Look At Geberit's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Geberit had liabilities of CHF889.6m due within a year, and liabilities of CHF1.15b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CHF199.4m as well as receivables valued at CHF321.2m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CHF1.52b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Since publicly traded Geberit shares are worth a very impressive total of CHF15.6b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Geberit's net debt is only 0.99 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 143 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. But the bad news is that Geberit has seen its EBIT plunge 16% in the last twelve months. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Geberit can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Geberit generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 87% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
Happily, Geberit's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Geberit can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Geberit is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:GEBN
Geberit
Develops, produces, and distributes sanitary products and systems for the residential and commercial construction industry.
Established dividend payer with mediocre balance sheet.