TFI International (TSX:TFII) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TFII when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TFII (CA$103.33) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$271)

TFII fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

TFII Stock Overview

TFI International Inc. provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Rewards

Trading at 61.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.85% per year

Earnings grew by 159.9% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Large one-off items impacting financial results

TFI International Competitors

Mullen Group

TSX:MTL

CA$1.1b

Titanium Transportation Group

TSXV:TTR

CA$91.6m

Cargojet

TSX:CJT

CA$2.5b

Canadian Pacific Railway

TSX:CP

CA$83.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for TFI International
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CA$103.33
52 Week High	CA$148.63
52 Week Low	CA$93.63
Beta	1.56
1 Month Change	-2.60%
3 Month Change	-14.06%
1 Year Change	-9.04%
3 Year Change	159.30%
5 Year Change	271.56%
Change since IPO	8,036.22%

Recent News & Updates

May 28

Do TFI International's (TSE:TFII) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

It's only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in 'sexy' stocks...

May 16

Is It Time To Consider Buying TFI International Inc. (TSE:TFII)?

While TFI International Inc. ( TSE:TFII ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of...

Shareholder Returns

	TFII	CA Transportation	CA Market
7D	2.0%	-1.1%	-0.8%
1Y	-9.0%	0.5%	-5.0%

Return vs Industry: TFII underperformed the Canadian Transportation industry which returned 0.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TFII underperformed the Canadian Market which returned -5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TFII's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TFII volatility
TFII Average Weekly Movement	6.5%
Transportation Industry Average Movement	4.8%
Market Average Movement	10.1%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market	17.4%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market	4.4%

Stable Share Price: TFII is less volatile than 75% of Canadian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TFII's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	29,051	Alain Bedard	https://www.tfiintl.com

TFI International Inc. provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company operates through Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. The Package and Courier segment engages in the pickup, transport, and delivery of items.

TFI International Fundamentals Summary

How do TFI International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TFII fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$7.33b
Earnings (TTM)	US$745.20m
Revenue (TTM)	US$8.26b

9.8x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is TFII overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TFII income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$8.26b
Cost of Revenue	US$6.64b
Gross Profit	US$1.63b
Other Expenses	US$880.56m
Earnings	US$745.20m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	8.14
Gross Margin	19.67%
Net Profit Margin	9.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio	74.7%

How did TFII perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.3%

Current Dividend Yield

12%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TFII undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TFII?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TFII. This is calculated by dividing TFII's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TFII's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$7.33b

TFII key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.8x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TFII's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TFII PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TFII vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	41.7x
MTL Mullen Group	13.9x	12.6%	CA$1.1b
TTR Titanium Transportation Group	9.3x	12.8%	CA$91.6m
CJT Cargojet	114.3x	41.0%	CA$2.5b
CP Canadian Pacific Railway	29.4x	17.2%	CA$83.6b
TFII TFI International	9.8x	4.8%	CA$9.5b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TFII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (41.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TFII's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TFII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the Canadian Transportation industry average (13.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TFII's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TFII PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TFII is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TFII when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TFII (CA$103.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$271)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TFII is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TFII is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2x)

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Future Growth

How is TFI International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TFII's forecast earnings growth (4.8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: TFII's earnings (4.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (7.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TFII's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TFII's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (6.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TFII's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TFII's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.3%)

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Past Performance

How has TFI International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

35.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TFII has a large one-off gain of $240.6M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: TFII's current net profit margins (9%) are higher than last year (7.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TFII's earnings have grown significantly by 35.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TFII's earnings growth over the past year (159.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (35.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TFII earnings growth over the past year (159.9%) exceeded the Transportation industry 37.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: TFII's Return on Equity (32.7%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is TFI International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TFII's short term assets ($1.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: TFII's short term assets ($1.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TFII's net debt to equity ratio (73.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: TFII's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 113.5% to 74.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TFII's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (49.2%).

Interest Coverage: TFII's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is TFI International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.35%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TFII's dividend (1.35%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (2.02%).

High Dividend: TFII's dividend (1.35%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (5.4%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TFII's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TFII's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (12.4%), TFII's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (19.4%), TFII's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Alain Bedard (69 yo)

26.5yrs

Tenure

US$12,777,551

Compensation

Mr. Alain Bedard, F.C.A., FCPA, CMA, serves as the President of 2400520 Ontario Inc. He serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of TFI International Inc. since 2007 and 1996 respectively. Mr. Bédar...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Alain's total compensation ($USD12.78M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD4.64M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Alain's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TFII's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TFII's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TFII insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31