Hunter Technology (CVE:HOC) pulls back 25% this week, but still delivers shareholders 1.6% CAGR over 5 years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 16, 2022
TSXV:HOC
Source: Shutterstock

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Hunter Technology Corp. (CVE:HOC), since the last five years saw the share price fall 95%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 92%. Even worse, it's down 63% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Since Hunter Technology has shed US$1.1m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Check out our latest analysis for Hunter Technology

Hunter Technology didn't have any revenue in the last year, so it's fair to say it doesn't yet have a proven product (or at least not one people are paying for). This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won't provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it's unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Hunter Technology will significantly advance the business plan before too long.

As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt. It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Hunter Technology investors might realise.

Hunter Technology had liabilities exceeding cash by US$1.3m when it last reported in September 2021, according to our data. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. But since the share price has dived 46% per year, over 5 years , it looks like some investors think it's time to abandon ship, so to speak. You can see in the image below, how Hunter Technology's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSXV:HOC Debt to Equity History March 16th 2022

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Hunter Technology's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Hunter Technology's TSR, at 8.5% is higher than its share price return of -95%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 15% in the last year, Hunter Technology shareholders lost 92%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.6% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hunter Technology better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Hunter Technology (of which 3 make us uncomfortable!) you should know about.

We will like Hunter Technology better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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