Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL): Assessing Valuation After Texas Medical Cannabis License Approval

Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL) just cleared a key hurdle in Texas, with state regulators granting conditional approval for a medical cannabis dispensing license. This opens the door to one of the largest long term markets in the country.

See our latest analysis for Trulieve Cannabis.

At a recent share price of $8.42, Trulieve’s 1 week share price return of 11.52 percent stands out against its 1 year total shareholder return of 8.93 percent, hinting that momentum is tentatively rebuilding after a tough multi year drawdown.

If this Texas move has you thinking more broadly about healthcare exposure, it could be a good moment to explore other healthcare stocks that might fit your strategy.

With shares still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite modest revenue growth and a path toward improving profitability, does Trulieve’s Texas catalyst signal a mispriced turnaround, or has the market already baked in future expansion?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 55.4% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at CA$8.42, the most followed valuation frame implies Trulieve’s potential is far higher and sets up an ambitious roadmap.

Pending federal policy changes specifically cannabis rescheduling to Schedule III and progress on SAFER Banking legislation are expected to substantially lower Trulieve's tax burden (eliminating the punitive 280E provision) and unlock improved access to financing, which would directly increase net margins and cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest top line growth, margin repair, and a punchy future earnings multiple combine into that upside target? The full narrative walks through the step by step math behind that call. It includes how earnings could flip from deep losses to positive territory and why the discount rate still supports a much higher present value.

Result: Fair Value of $18.87 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, delays in federal reform or renewed pricing pressure in core states like Florida could quickly undermine the margin and valuation recovery story.

Find out about the key risks to this Trulieve Cannabis narrative.

Build Your Own Trulieve Cannabis Narrative

If you would rather test the assumptions, dive into the numbers, and shape the story yourself, you can build a fresh view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trulieve Cannabis research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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