OceanaGold (TSX:OGC): Valuation Check After Expanded High-Grade Gold Discoveries at Wharekirauponga

OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) just released a fresh batch of drilling results from its Wharekirauponga project in New Zealand, extending the EG vein’s high grade gold footprint and greenlighting a much larger exploration push.

See our latest analysis for OceanaGold.

Investors seem to be treating these Wharekirauponga results as confirmation of a broader turnaround story. The share price at CA$35.49, a strong year to date share price return and a powerful multi year total shareholder return profile suggest that momentum is still building rather than fading.

If this kind of exploration driven rerating has caught your attention, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other fast growing, high conviction ideas before the market fully prices them in.

With OceanaGold trading below analyst targets but boasting spectacular recent returns, is the market still underestimating the upside from Wharekirauponga, or has the share price already baked in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12% Undervalued

With OceanaGold last closing at CA$35.49 against a narrative fair value near CA$40.31, the story leans toward upside built on aggressive growth assumptions.

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$26.986 for OceanaGold based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$31.45, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$22.19.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue climb, margin expansion and shrinking share count are baked into this fair value playbook? The growth math behind it might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $40.31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, tougher ore at Haile and weather related disruptions at Didipio could inflate costs and delay production, which may challenge the upbeat growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this OceanaGold narrative.

Build Your Own OceanaGold Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding OceanaGold.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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