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LUG

Lundin Gold TSX:LUG Stock Report

Last Price

CA$8.82

Market Cap

CA$2.1b

7D

3.2%

1Y

-17.4%

Updated

06 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
LUG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

LUG Stock Overview

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada.

Lundin Gold Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Lundin Gold
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$8.82
52 Week HighCA$12.73
52 Week LowCA$7.80
Beta0.98
1 Month Change3.52%
3 Month Change-13.45%
1 Year Change-17.42%
3 Year Change7.04%
5 Year Change70.27%
Change since IPO-83.99%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 16
More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) Shares After Tumbling 25%

More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) Shares After Tumbling 25%

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Lundin Gold Inc. ( TSE:LUG ) share price has dived 25% in the last thirty...

Jun 17
Is Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Using Too Much Debt?

Is Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

May 20
Here's Why I Think Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Here's Why I Think Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Shareholder Returns

LUGCA Metals and MiningCA Market
7D3.2%0.4%-0.8%
1Y-17.4%-18.3%-2.0%

Return vs Industry: LUG matched the Canadian Metals and Mining industry which returned -18.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUG underperformed the Canadian Market which returned -1.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUG volatility
LUG Average Weekly Movement7.4%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement11.8%
Market Average Movement10.8%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market19.4%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market4.4%

Stable Share Price: LUG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Canadian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LUG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1986n/aRon Hochsteinhttps://www.lundingold.com

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador.

Lundin Gold Fundamentals Summary

How do Lundin Gold's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUG fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.60b
Earnings (TTM)US$158.63m
Revenue (TTM)US$809.81m

10.1x

P/E Ratio

2.0x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LUG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$809.81m
Cost of RevenueUS$288.94m
Gross ProfitUS$520.87m
Other ExpensesUS$362.24m
EarningsUS$158.63m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 09, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)0.67
Gross Margin64.32%
Net Profit Margin19.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio88.9%

How did LUG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LUG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.1x
PEG Ratio-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

LUG PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average139.8x
VGCX Victoria Gold
6.9xn/aCA$654.9m
KNT K92 Mining
36.8x37.9%CA$1.9b
CXB Calibre Mining
7.2x30.8%CA$493.8m
WDO Wesdome Gold Mines
11.7x6.0%CA$1.5b
LUG Lundin Gold
10.1x-18.8%CA$2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (139.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (9.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.1x
Fair PE Ratio6.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUG (CA$8.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$20.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Lundin Gold forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-18.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-18.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-18.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LUG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.4% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LUG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Lundin Gold performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


45.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LUG's current net profit margins (19.6%) are higher than last year (10.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 45.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: LUG's earnings growth over the past year (229.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (45.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LUG earnings growth over the past year (229.4%) exceeded the Metals and Mining industry -15.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: LUG's Return on Equity (18.7%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Lundin Gold's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUG's short term assets ($615.7M) exceed its short term liabilities ($342.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: LUG's short term assets ($615.7M) exceed its long term liabilities ($547.1M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUG's net debt to equity ratio (49.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: LUG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 7.8% to 88.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LUG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (62.5%).

Interest Coverage: LUG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (10x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Lundin Gold current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


4.14%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LUG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LUG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LUG has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ron Hochstein (61 yo)

7.67yrs

Tenure

US$2,272,718

Compensation

Mr. Ronald F. Hochstein, also known as Ron, MBA, P.Eng., B.Sc. (Mineral Process Engineering), serves as an Independent Chairman of the Board of Directors of Denison Mines Corp. since May 2021. He has been...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ron's total compensation ($USD2.27M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD2.22M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ron's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LUG's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: LUG's board of directors are considered experienced (5.4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: LUG insiders have bought and sold the same number of shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Lundin Gold Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Lundin Gold Inc.
  • Ticker: LUG
  • Exchange: TSX
  • Founded: 1986
  • Industry: Gold
  • Sector: Materials
  • Implied Market Cap: CA$2.074b
  • Shares outstanding: 235.17m
  • Website: https://www.lundingold.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Lundin Gold Inc.
  • 885 West Georgia Street
  • Suite 2000
  • Vancouver
  • British Columbia
  • V6C 3E8
  • Canada

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.