A Look at Centerra Gold’s (TSX:CG) Valuation Following Newly Announced 10% Share Buyback

Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) just unveiled a fresh share buyback plan, approved by its Board of Directors. This gives the company the authority to repurchase close to 10% of its outstanding shares over the next year.

See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.

The buyback news arrives shortly after a stellar run for Centerra Gold’s stock, with momentum continuing to build. After a remarkable 8.6% share price return over the last week and more than 104% year-to-date, investors have been rewarded with a 1-year total shareholder return of 115%. This surge reflects renewed optimism, with the company’s strategic moves and strengthening outlook contributing to improved sentiment.

If you want to see which other resource stocks are delivering strong momentum or insider support, it’s a great time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Centerra Gold shares rallying to fresh highs and a new buyback in play, investors are left wondering if the stock is still trading at an attractive valuation or if all the future growth has already been priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.5% Undervalued

Centerra Gold’s most widely tracked narrative points to a fair value slightly above its recent close of CA$17.40, implying modest upside when compared to its estimated intrinsic worth of CA$18.41. This assessment comes amid debate over whether Centerra’s strategic projects and capital discipline can power sustainable gains at this stage of the rally.

The company’s ongoing focus on operational efficiency and cost management, exemplified by mine-to-mill integration and targeted capex on process upgrades, aims to mitigate industry cost inflation and reinforce net margins even as all-in sustaining costs rise sector wide.

Read the complete narrative.

This price target is not pulled out of thin air. The narrative is anchored to some aggressive bottom-line improvement and margin resilience projections, based on forward expectations only revealed inside the full analysis. Want to unpack the growth math and capital return logic driving this fair value? See how future cash flow and profitability assumptions combine behind the scenes.

Result: Fair Value of $18.41 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent challenges at Mount Milligan and rising cost pressures could derail growth expectations and put Centerra Gold’s current fair value narrative at risk.

Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.

Build Your Own Centerra Gold Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the details yourself, you can put your own story together in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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