Alamos Gold (TSX:AGI) - Share price, News & Analysis

AGI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

AGI Stock Overview

Alamos Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of precious metals in Canada, Mexico, the United States, and Turkey.

Rewards

Trading at 88% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 40.82% per year

Risk Analysis

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Alamos Gold Competitors

Barrick Gold

TSX:ABX

CA$48.6b

Kinross Gold

TSX:K

CA$7.7b

Endeavour Mining

TSX:EDV

CA$7.4b

Yamana Gold

TSX:YRI

CA$6.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alamos Gold
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CA$9.92
52 Week High	CA$11.61
52 Week Low	CA$8.30
Beta	1.07
1 Month Change	-5.34%
3 Month Change	5.76%
1 Year Change	-9.98%
3 Year Change	64.78%
5 Year Change	12.86%
Change since IPO	41.92%

Shareholder Returns

	AGI	CA Metals and Mining	CA Market
7D	7.9%	2.3%	-0.7%
1Y	-10.0%	-6.3%	5.2%

Return vs Industry: AGI underperformed the Canadian Metals and Mining industry which returned -7.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AGI underperformed the Canadian Market which returned 4.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AGI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AGI volatility
AGI Average Weekly Movement	5.7%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	10.8%
Market Average Movement	9.8%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market	4.3%

Stable Share Price: AGI is less volatile than 75% of Canadian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AGI's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	1,900	John McCluskey	https://www.alamosgold.com

Alamos Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of precious metals in Canada, Mexico, the United States, and Turkey. It primary explores for gold and silver. The company’s flagship project is the Young-Davidson mine, which includes contiguous mineral leases and claims totaling 5,587 hectares located in Matachewan in the Northern Ontario, Canada.

Alamos Gold Fundamentals Summary

How do Alamos Gold's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AGI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.03b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$126.40m
Revenue (TTM)	US$780.70m

3.9x

P/S Ratio

-23.9x

P/E Ratio

Is AGI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AGI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$780.70m
Cost of Revenue	US$364.20m
Gross Profit	US$416.50m
Other Expenses	US$542.90m
Earnings	-US$126.40m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.32
Gross Margin	53.35%
Net Profit Margin	-16.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did AGI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.3%

Current Dividend Yield

-31%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Alamos Gold undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AGI (CA$9.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$82.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AGI is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average.

PE vs Market: AGI is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the Canadian market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AGI's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AGI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.1x) compared to the CA Metals and Mining industry average (2x).

Future Growth

How is Alamos Gold forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

40.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: AGI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AGI's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AGI's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (6.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AGI's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AGI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.3%).

Past Performance

How has Alamos Gold performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

10.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AGI is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: AGI is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AGI is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 10.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare AGI's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: AGI is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (-1.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AGI has a negative Return on Equity (-4.65%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Alamos Gold's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AGI's short term assets ($474.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($149.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: AGI's short term assets ($474.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($707.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AGI is debt free.

Reducing Debt: AGI has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 14.7%.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if AGI has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if AGI has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

Dividend

What is Alamos Gold current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

1/6

Dividend Score 1/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.30%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AGI's dividend (1.3%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (1.9%).

High Dividend: AGI's dividend (1.3%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (4.91%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, AGI has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AGI's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 7 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: AGI is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: AGI is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John McCluskey (61 yo)

19.33yrs

Tenure

US$3,369,670

Compensation

Mr. John A. McCluskey has been the President and Chief Executive Officer of Alamos Gold, Inc., since November 2003 and February 2003 respectively. Mr. McCluskey began his career with Glamis Gold Ltd. in 19...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD3.37M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD3.45M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AGI's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AGI's board of directors are considered experienced (8.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AGI insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31