Allied Gold (TSX:AAUC): Exploring Valuation After Recent Kurmuk Project Breakthroughs and Portfolio Growth Updates

Allied Gold (TSX:AAUC) just shared fresh exploration results and development updates at its Kurmuk project in western Ethiopia. The updates highlight higher-grade drill intercepts and the potential for further resource expansion at this key asset.

See our latest analysis for Allied Gold.

Allied Gold’s latest exploration success at Kurmuk comes following record production growth and ambitious expansion plans across its portfolio. The stock has rewarded this momentum with a remarkable year-to-date share price return of 158%, while the 1-year total shareholder return stands even higher at 186%. The strong rally signals growing confidence in management’s ability to turn resource potential into tangible growth opportunities.

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With shares soaring and operational momentum building, the key question now is whether Allied Gold is still undervalued or if the market has already priced in the company’s ambitious growth targets and exploration potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 24% Undervalued

Compared to the last close price of CA$29.46, the narrative’s fair value of CA$38.84 implies meaningful upside. Growing optimism about operating performance and rapid expansion is the core of this valuation story, setting up a clear contrast between current price and future potential.

Execution of significant operational upgrades, including increased waste stripping, new mining equipment, cost reduction initiatives, and optimization of block models, are expected to unlock higher grades and production efficiency in the second half of the year and into 2026, positioning the company for lower unit costs and improved net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this bold valuation? The narrative projects a profitability turnaround powered by high-impact expansion strategies and updated profit multiples. What is the financial model analysts say will drive this potential upside? Don’t miss the crucial earnings assumptions behind this headline figure.

Result: Fair Value of $38.84 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing geopolitical risks and sustained high operating costs could quickly change the growth outlook. These factors may act as crucial catalysts for the Allied Gold narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Allied Gold narrative.

Build Your Own Allied Gold Narrative

If you see things differently or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, building your own take on Allied Gold only takes a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Allied Gold.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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