Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for TSXV:AHI.H using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
TSXV:AHI.H DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Agility Health's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Agility Health's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Agility Health's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Agility Health has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.
This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have past financial data. You can see them here.
Show me the analysis anyway
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
and how much profit it is expected to make.
Future estimates come from
professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get
Expected Healthcare industry annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
expected to grow at an
Unable to compare Agility Health's earnings growth to the low risk savings rate as no estimate data is available.
Growth vs Market Checks
Unable to compare Agility Health's earnings growth to the Canada market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to compare Agility Health's revenue growth to the Canada market average as no estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Agility Health is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
Unable to determine if Agility Health is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Agility Health's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Wayne D. Cockburn is CEO at Agility Health, Inc. He served as Vice President of Corporate Development at Agility Health, Inc. and its Interim Chief Executive Officer since April 11, 2018. He also serves as a Director of Agility Health, Inc. since June 20, 2018. Mr. Cockburn serves as Consultant of Relevium Technologies Inc. Mr. Cockburn served as Chief Executive Officer and President of iTech Medical, Inc. from February 2012 to December 2015. Mr. Cockburn served as a Vice President of Aptose Biosciences Inc. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of Relevium Technologies Inc. since August 7, 2015 to September 1, 2015 and served as its Corporate Secretary. Mr. Cockburn served as Principal Accounting Officer and Treasurer of iTech Medical, Inc. (Impact Medical Solutions Inc.). Mr. Cockburn served as the Chief Financial Officer of iTech Medical, Inc. from September 2003 to June 21, 2011. He served as Secretary of iTech Medical, Inc. until June 21, 2011. Mr. Cockburn served as the Chief Executive Officer of iTech Medical, Inc. (Impact Medical Solutions Inc.) (IMS) from September 2003 to March 2011 and served as its President from September 2003 to February 19, 2011. He served as Chief Financial Officer of Impact Medical Solutions Inc. Prior to joining IMS in September 2003, Mr. Cockburn served as President of MPR Health Systems from January 2002 to September 2003 and served as its Executive Vice President from January 2000 to January 2002. From January 1995 to December 1999, Mr. Cockburn served as Vice President of Business Development at Lorus Therapeutics. His background includes strategic planning, corporate finance, corporate partnering, corporate governance and mergers and acquisitions. Mr. Cockburn serves as a Director of MPR Health Systems, Inc. He serves as a Director of Red Juggernaut, Inc. and Next Millennium Commercial Corp. He served as a Director of iTech Medical, Inc. until December 2015 and previously served as its Director from 2003 to June 20, 2011. He served as a Director of Relevium Technologies Inc.
Insufficient data for Wayne to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Wayne to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Canada.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Agility Health management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
President & Director
CEO & Director
Chief Financial Officer
Vice President of Operations
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Agility Health board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Agility Health, Inc. does not have significant operations. It focuses on identifying an active business. Previously, the company provided rehabilitation services through its clinics in Canada. Agility Health, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Canada.
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