Does Painted Pony Energy Ltd’s (TSE:PONY) PE Ratio Signal A Selling Opportunity?

This article is intended for those of you who are at the beginning of your investing journey and want to begin learning about how to value company based on its current earnings and what are the drawbacks of this method.

Painted Pony Energy Ltd (TSE:PONY) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 42.8, which is higher than the industry average of 21.4. While this might not seem positive, it is important to understand the assumptions behind the P/E ratio before you make any investment decisions. Today, I will deconstruct the P/E ratio and highlight what you need to be careful of when using the P/E ratio.

See our latest analysis for Painted Pony Energy

Breaking down the Price-Earnings ratio

TSX:PONY PE PEG Gauge October 10th 18
TSX:PONY PE PEG Gauge October 10th 18

The P/E ratio is a popular ratio used in relative valuation since earnings power is a key driver of investment value. By comparing a stock’s price per share to its earnings per share, we are able to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.

Formula

Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for PONY

Price per share = CA$2.68

Earnings per share = CA$0.0626

∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = CA$2.68 ÷ CA$0.0626 = 42.8x

On its own, the P/E ratio doesn’t tell you much; however, it becomes extremely useful when you compare it with other similar companies. Ultimately, our goal is to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar attributes to PONY, such as company lifetime and products sold. A quick method of creating a peer group is to use companies in the same industry, which is what I will do. Since similar companies should technically have similar P/E ratios, we can very quickly come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios differ.

PONY’s P/E of 42.8 is higher than its industry peers (21.4), which implies that each dollar of PONY’s earnings is being overvalued by investors. This multiple is a median of profitable companies of 25 Oil and Gas companies in CA including Greencastle Resources, McChip Resources and Pinedale Energy. You could also say that the market is suggesting that PONY has a stronger business than the average comparable company.

A few caveats

Before you jump to conclusions it is important to realise that there are assumptions in this analysis. Firstly, that our peer group contains companies that are similar to PONY. If this isn’t the case, the difference in P/E could be due to other factors. For example, if Painted Pony Energy Ltd is growing faster than its peers, then it would deserve a higher P/E ratio. We should also be aware that the stocks we are comparing to PONY may not be fairly valued. So while we can reasonably surmise that it is optimistically valued relative to a peer group, it might be fairly valued, if the peer group is undervalued.

TSX:PONY Future Profit October 10th 18
TSX:PONY Future Profit October 10th 18

What this means for you:

Since you may have already conducted your due diligence on PONY, the overvaluation of the stock may mean it is a good time to reduce your current holdings. But at the end of the day, keep in mind that relative valuation relies heavily on critical assumptions I’ve outlined above. Remember that basing your investment decision off one metric alone is certainly not sufficient. There are many things I have not taken into account in this article and the PE ratio is very one-dimensional. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Financial Health: Are PONY’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
  2. Past Track Record: Has PONY been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of PONY’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.