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We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn’t mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example the Prophecy Development Corp. (TSE:PCY) share price dropped 66% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 36%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 29% in the last 90 days. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.
With zero revenue generated over twelve months, we don’t think that Prophecy Development has proved its business plan yet. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won’t provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). It seems likely some shareholders believe that Prophecy Development will discover or develop fossil fuel before too long.
As a general rule, if a company doesn’t have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. It certainly is a dangerous place to invest, as Prophecy Development investors might realise.
Prophecy Development had liabilities exceeding cash by CA$6,606,465 when it last reported in March 2019, according to our data. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But with the share price diving 19% per year, over 5 years, it’s probably fair to say that some shareholders no longer believe the company will succeed. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Prophecy Development’s cash levels have changed over time.
Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? It would bother me, that’s for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 0.7% in the last year, Prophecy Development shareholders lost 36%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 19% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.
Prophecy Development is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.