TSX:KEL

Stock Analysis Report

Kelt Exploration

Executive Summary

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada.

Snowflake

Slightly overvalued with questionable track record.

Share Price & News

How has Kelt Exploration's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: KEL's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.2%

KEL

0.1%

CA Oil and Gas

0.4%

CA Market


1 Year Return

-30.4%

KEL

-2.1%

CA Oil and Gas

7.1%

CA Market

Return vs Industry: KEL underperformed the Canadian Oil and Gas industry which returned -2.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KEL underperformed the Canadian Market which returned 7.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

KELIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.2%0.1%0.4%
30 Day7.0%4.5%2.8%
90 Day18.7%8.0%4.0%
1 Year-30.4%-30.4%2.3%-2.1%10.7%7.1%
3 Year-44.7%-44.7%-10.8%-19.9%18.1%7.4%
5 Year-65.5%-65.5%-20.0%-32.2%26.1%7.6%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Kelt Exploration's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Kelt Exploration undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: KEL (CA$3.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$19.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: KEL is poor value based on its PE Ratio (51.5x) compared to the Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).

PE vs Market: KEL is poor value based on its PE Ratio (51.5x) compared to the Canadian market (14.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: KEL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (192.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: KEL is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (0.7x) compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average (0.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Kelt Exploration forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

0.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KEL's forecast earnings growth (0.3% per year) is below the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: KEL's earnings (0.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (9.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KEL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: KEL's revenue (16.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (4.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KEL's revenue (16.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KEL is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.


Next Steps

  • Explore growth companies in the Energy industry.

Past Performance

How has Kelt Exploration performed over the past 5 years?

32.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KEL has large one-off items impacting its financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: KEL's current net profit margins (3.2%) are higher than last year (-0.02%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KEL's earnings have grown significantly by 32.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KEL has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: KEL has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (24.1%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: KEL's Return on Equity (1.3%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Kelt Exploration's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: KEL's short term assets (CA$49.1M) do not cover its short term liabilities (CA$86.2M)

Long Term Liabilities: KEL's short term assets (49.1M) do not cover its long term liabilities (608.2M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: KEL's debt to equity ratio (40.2%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: KEL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0.08% to 40.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: KEL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (52.3%).

Interest Coverage: KEL's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: KEL has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: KEL's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.1x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Kelt Exploration's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%2.0%markettop25%5.7%industryaverage4.7%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate KEL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate KEL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if KEL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if KEL's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of KEL's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Canadian market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Kelt Exploration's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

7.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

David Wilson (59yo)

7.1yrs

Tenure

CA$604,108

Compensation

Mr. David John Wilson has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Kelt Exploration Ltd. since October 11, 2012. Mr. Wilson was President and the Chief Executive Officer of Celtic Exploration Ltd. ...


Management Age and Tenure

7.1yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: KEL's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.1 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

4.5yrs

Average Tenure

62yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: KEL's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: KEL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyCA$300,75012 Sep 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares100,000
Max PriceCA$3.01
BuyCA$298,50006 Sep 19
David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm
EntityCompany
Shares100,000
Max PriceCA$2.99
BuyCA$112,00130 Aug 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares45,000
Max PriceCA$2.49
BuyCA$26,50026 Aug 19
Bruce Gigg
EntityIndividual
Shares10,000
Max PriceCA$2.65
BuyCA$370,72823 Aug 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares131,200
Max PriceCA$2.89
BuyCA$87,90019 Aug 19
Bruce Gigg
EntityIndividual
Shares30,000
Max PriceCA$2.93
BuyCA$443,33119 Aug 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares158,900
Max PriceCA$2.79
BuyCA$14,02316 Aug 19
William Guinan
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Chairman & Corporate Secretary
Shares5,000
Max PriceCA$2.80
BuyCA$135,00016 Aug 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares50,000
Max PriceCA$2.70
BuyCA$550,98715 Aug 19
David and Penny Wilson Family Foundation, Endowment Arm
EntityCompany
Shares190,000
Max PriceCA$3.12
BuyCA$49,32015 Aug 19
Sadiq Lalani
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
VP & CFO
Shares18,000
Max PriceCA$2.74
BuyCA$814,80215 Aug 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares280,000
Max PriceCA$3.15
BuyCA$25,20013 Aug 19
Sadiq Lalani
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
VP & CFO
Shares8,000
Max PriceCA$3.15
BuyCA$359,18812 Jun 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares87,000
Max PriceCA$4.13
BuyCA$35,36612 Jun 19
Sadiq Lalani
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
VP & CFO
Shares9,115
Max PriceCA$3.88
BuyCA$436,19207 Jun 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares102,100
Max PriceCA$4.27
BuyCA$207,71105 Jun 19
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares47,100
Max PriceCA$4.41
BuyCA$63,15010 Dec 18
Bruce Gigg
EntityIndividual
Shares15,000
Max PriceCA$4.21
BuyCA$169,62310 Dec 18
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares42,300
Max PriceCA$4.01
BuyCA$32,18607 Dec 18
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares7,700
Max PriceCA$4.18
BuyCA$226,00004 Dec 18
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares50,000
Max PriceCA$4.52
BuyCA$63,60030 Nov 18
Sadiq Lalani
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
VP & CFO
Shares15,000
Max PriceCA$4.24
BuyCA$218,50030 Nov 18
David Wilson
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO, President & Director
Shares50,000
Max PriceCA$4.37
BuyCA$95,92523 Nov 18
Bruce Gigg
EntityIndividual
Shares20,000
Max PriceCA$4.95
BuyCA$86,63523 Nov 18
Sadiq Lalani
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
VP & CFO
Shares16,988
Max PriceCA$7.59

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Bill Guinan (63yo)

    Chairman & Corporate Secretary

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: CA$86.34k
  • David Wilson (59yo)

    CEO, President & Director

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$604.11k
  • Sadiq Lalani

    VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$635.36k
  • Doug MacArthur

    Vice President of Operations

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$595.76k
  • Pat Miles

    Vice President of Exploration

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$595.76k
  • Carol Van Brunschot

    Vice President of Marketing

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs

Board Members

  • Bill Guinan (63yo)

    Chairman & Corporate Secretary

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: CA$86.34k
  • David Wilson (59yo)

    CEO, President & Director

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$604.11k
  • Neil Sinclair (71yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 7.1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$86.34k
  • Michael Shea (61yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.6yrs
    • Compensation: CA$97.40k
  • Bob Dales (71yo)

    Lead Director

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: CA$86.34k
  • Geraldine Greenall (45yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.9yrs
    • Compensation: CA$86.34k

Company Information

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Kelt Exploration Ltd.
  • Ticker: KEL
  • Exchange: TSX
  • Founded: 2012
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: CA$621.017m
  • Shares outstanding: 184.28m
  • Website: https://www.keltexploration.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Kelt Exploration Ltd.
  • East Tower
  • Suite 300
  • Calgary
  • Alberta
  • T2P 3H2
  • Canada

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
KELTSX (The Toronto Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesCACADMar 2013
KELT.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon SharesUSUSDMar 2013
2KEDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURMar 2013

Biography

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Colu ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/11/15 00:27
End of Day Share Price2019/11/14 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.