TSX:CMG

Stock Analysis Report

Computer Modelling Group

Executive Summary

Computer Modelling Group Ltd., a computer software technology company, develops and licenses reservoir simulation software in Canada.


Snowflake Analysis

Flawless balance sheet with acceptable track record.

Share Price & News

How has Computer Modelling Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-9.8%

CMG

-8.2%

CA Energy Services

-1.5%

CA Market


1 Year Return

16.3%

CMG

-40.1%

CA Energy Services

2.5%

CA Market

Return vs Industry: CMG exceeded the Canadian Energy Services industry which returned -40.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CMG exceeded the Canadian Market which returned 2.5% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CMGIndustryMarket
7 Day-9.8%-8.2%-1.5%
30 Day-11.9%-9.0%-0.7%
90 Day-13.6%-6.1%1.8%
1 Year23.2%16.3%-38.2%-40.1%5.7%2.5%
3 Year-19.9%-30.9%-56.3%-59.5%16.8%6.2%
5 Year-29.3%-42.9%-59.5%-64.3%32.0%12.8%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Computer Modelling Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Computer Modelling Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

25.58x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CMG (CA$7.14) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$6.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CMG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (25.6x) compared to the Energy Services industry average (12.8x).

PE vs Market: CMG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (25.6x) compared to the Canadian market (16x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CMG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (8.1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CMG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (14.6x) compared to the CA Energy Services industry average (0.7x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Computer Modelling Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

3.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMG's forecast earnings growth (3.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.4%).

Earnings vs Market: CMG's earnings (3.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (11.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CMG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CMG's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market (4.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CMG's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (78.7%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Computer Modelling Group performed over the past 5 years?

-9.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CMG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CMG's current net profit margins (28.6%) are lower than last year (30.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CMG's earnings have declined by -9.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CMG's earnings growth over the past year (0.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-9.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CMG earnings growth over the past year (0.4%) underperformed the Energy Services industry 26.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: CMG's Return on Equity (57.2%) is considered outstanding.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Computer Modelling Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets (CA$50.0M) exceed its short term liabilities (CA$22.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets (CA$50.0M) exceed its long term liabilities (CA$41.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CMG is debt free.

Reducing Debt: CMG has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: CMG has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's debt is covered by short term assets.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Computer Modelling Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

5.60%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase Computer Modelling Group before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company5.6%marketbottom25%2.0%markettop25%5.6%industryaverage5.5%forecastin3Years5.6%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: CMG's dividend (5.6%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (2%).

High Dividend: CMG's dividend (5.6%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (5.6%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CMG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CMG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (143.3%), CMG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be covered by earnings.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ryan Schneider (42yo)

1.6yrs

Tenure

CA$900,112

Compensation

Mr. Ryan N. Schneider has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Computer Modelling Group Ltd., since July 12, 2018. Mr. Schneider served as the Chief Operating Officer at Computer Modelli ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ryan's total compensation ($USD678.16K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD940.89K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ryan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Ryan Schneider
President1.6yrsCA$900.11k0.034% CA$210.5k
Sandra Balic
VP of Finance & CFO6.4yrsCA$478.86k0.078% CA$485.9k
Long Nghiem
CTO and VP of Research & Development1yrsCA$586.46k0.98% CA$6.1m
James Erdle
Vice President of USA & Latin America11.7yrsCA$646.07k0.080% CA$496.8k
Robert Hicks
Vice President of Eastern Hemisphere6.8yrsCA$573.22k0.37% CA$2.3m
Kristin Mason
Manager of Administration & Compliance0yrsno datano data
Anjani Kumar
Vice President of Engineering Solutions & Marketing4.6yrsno data0.086% CA$536.5k
Kathy Krug
Corporate Secretary0yrsno datano data

5.5yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: CMG's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Ryan Schneider
President1.6yrsCA$900.11k0.034% CA$210.5k
John Zaozirny
Chairman of the Board2.6yrsCA$146.72k0.13% CA$809.9k
Peter Kinash
Independent Director15.7yrsCA$122.15k0.057% CA$356.5k
Kenneth Dedeluk
Vice Chairman of the Board1.6yrsCA$760.62k2.09% CA$13.0m
Robert F. Smith
Independent Director21.5yrsCA$117.42k0.028% CA$174.4k
Mark Miller
Director0.3yrsno datano data
Patrick Jamieson
Independent Director12.8yrsCA$112.42k0.015% CA$92.0k
Judith Athaide
Independent Director2.6yrsCA$103.15k0.017% CA$108.0k
Christopher Fong
Independent Director8yrsCA$105.15k0.024% CA$147.3k

2.6yrs

Average Tenure

67yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CMG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CMG insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Computer Modelling Group Ltd.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Computer Modelling Group Ltd.
  • Ticker: CMG
  • Exchange: TSX
  • Founded: 1978
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Equipment and Services
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: CA$621.928m
  • Shares outstanding: 80.25m
  • Website: https://www.cmgl.ca

Number of Employees


Location

  • Computer Modelling Group Ltd.
  • 3710 33 Street NW
  • Calgary
  • Alberta
  • T2L 2M1
  • Canada

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
CMGTSX (The Toronto Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesCACADApr 1997
5TJDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURApr 1997
CMDX.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon SharesUSUSDApr 1997

Biography

Computer Modelling Group Ltd., a computer software technology company, develops and licenses reservoir simulation software in Canada. The company offers CMOST AI, an intelligent optimization and analysis tool that offers solution for its reservoir by combining statistical analysis, machine learning, and non-biased data interpretation; IMEX, a black oil simulator that is used to model primary and secondary oil recovery processes in conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoirs; GEM, an equation-of-state reservoir simulator for compositional, chemical, and unconventional reservoir modelling; STARS, a thermal and processes reservoir simulator for the modelling of steam, solvents, air, and chemical recovery processes; and CoFlow, a reservoir and production system modelling software that allows reservoir and production engineers to collaborate on the same asset. It also provides Builder, a pre-processor that simplifies the creation of simulation models by providing a framework for data integration and workflow management between various data sources; Results, a post-processor that helps in enhancing understanding and insight into recovery processes and reservoir performance; and WinProp, a fluid property characterization tool, as well as Autotune artificial intelligence solutions. In addition, the company provides professional services comprising support, consulting, training, and contract research services. It also sells its products and services in approximately 60 countries. Computer Modelling Group Ltd. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/25 00:24
End of Day Share Price2020/02/24 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/03/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.