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Advantage Oil & Gas

TSX:AAV
Snowflake Description

Excellent balance sheet with limited growth.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
AAV
TSX
CA$717M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. CA
  3. Energy
Company description

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces natural gas in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The last earnings update was 48 days ago. More info.


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AAV Share Price and Events
Price Volatility
AAV
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Advantage Oil & Gas undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Advantage Oil & Gas to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Advantage Oil & Gas.

TSX:AAV Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 6 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 12.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year CA Government Bond Rate 2.3%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for TSX:AAV
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year CA Govt Bond Rate 2.3%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 7.7%
Oil and Gas Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.09
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.089 (1 + (1- 26.5%) (34.9%))
1.368
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.37
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.34% + (1.368 * 7.66%)
12.82%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for TSX:AAV using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Advantage Oil & Gas is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

TSX:AAV DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Levered FCF (CAD, Millions) -19.75 10.80 54.50 58.31 62.38
Source Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Analyst x2 Est @ 6.98% Est @ 6.98%
Present Value
Discounted (@ 12.82%)
-17.51 8.48 37.95 35.99 34.13
Present value of next 5 years cash flows CA$99.05
TSX:AAV DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CA$62.38 × (1 + 2.34%) ÷ (12.82% – 2.34%)
CA$609.10
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= CA$609.10 ÷ (1 + 12.82%)5
CA$333.23
TSX:AAV Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CA$99.05 + CA$333.23
CA$432.28
Equity Value per Share
(CAD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CA$432.28 / 186.20
CA$2.32
TSX:AAV Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (CAD) From above. CA$2.32
Current discount Discount to share price of CA$3.91
= -1 x (CA$3.91 - CA$2.32) / CA$2.32
-68.4%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Advantage Oil & Gas is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
TSX:AAV PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-06-30) in CAD CA$0.16
TSX:AAV Share Price ** TSX (2018-08-17) in CAD CA$3.91
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 56 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 20.85x
Canada Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 595 Publicly-Listed Companies 16.68x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Advantage Oil & Gas.

TSX:AAV PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= TSX:AAV Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CAD)

= 3.91 ÷ 0.16

24.86x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advantage Oil & Gas is overvalued based on earnings compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas is overvalued based on earnings compared to the Canada market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Advantage Oil & Gas's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
TSX:AAV PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 24.86x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 6 Analysts
-83.5%per year
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 34 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 1.18x
Canada Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 308 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.08x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

TSX:AAV PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 24.86x ÷ -83.5%

-0.3x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advantage Oil & Gas earnings are not expected to grow next year, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Advantage Oil & Gas's assets?
Raw Data
TSX:AAV PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-06-30) in CAD CA$7.03
TSX:AAV Share Price * TSX (2018-08-17) in CAD CA$3.91
Canada Oil and Gas Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 263 Publicly-Listed Oil and Gas Companies 1.19x
Canada Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 2,472 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.69x
TSX:AAV PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= TSX:AAV Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CAD)

= 3.91 ÷ 7.03

0.56x

* Primary Listing of Advantage Oil & Gas.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Advantage Oil & Gas is good value based on assets compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Oil and Gas industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Advantage Oil & Gas expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
-83.5%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Advantage Oil & Gas expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the low risk savings rate of 2.3%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the Canada market average.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's revenue growth is expected to exceed the Canada market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
TSX:AAV Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
TSX:AAV Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 6 Analysts -83.5%
TSX:AAV Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 6 Analysts 24%
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 21.1%
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.5%
Canada Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 15.7%
Canada Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.8%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
TSX:AAV Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (1 month ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 6 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CAD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
TSX:AAV Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31 367 272 -7 3
2019-12-31 290 201 8 6
2018-12-31 234 161 40 6
TSX:AAV Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-06-30 196 171 29
2018-03-31 217 192 63
2017-12-31 225 186 95
2017-09-30 234 214 65
2017-06-30 233 205 60
2017-03-31 197 196 12
2016-12-31 157 175 -16
2016-09-30 129 148 6
2016-06-30 121 139 4
2016-03-31 121 118 32
2015-12-31 126 113 21
2015-09-30 139 132 63

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
TSX:AAV Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (1 month ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 6 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Advantage Oil & Gas Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

TSX:AAV Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31
2019-12-31
2018-12-31
TSX:AAV Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) EPS *
2018-06-30 0.16
2018-03-31 0.34
2017-12-31 0.51
2017-09-30 0.35
2017-06-30 0.32
2017-03-31 0.06
2016-12-31 -0.09
2016-09-30 0.03
2016-06-30 0.02
2016-03-31 0.19
2015-12-31 0.13
2015-09-30 0.37

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Canada market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Canada market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Advantage Oil & Gas performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Advantage Oil & Gas's growth in the last year to its industry (Oil and Gas).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Advantage Oil & Gas's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Advantage Oil & Gas Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

TSX:AAV Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-06-30 196.48 29.26 11.95
2018-03-31 216.60 62.89 11.47
2017-12-31 225.38 95.04 12.45
2017-09-30 234.09 64.77 12.58
2017-06-30 233.50 59.93 12.28
2017-03-31 196.86 11.82 11.81
2016-12-31 157.03 -15.73 10.75
2016-09-30 128.60 5.52 10.81
2016-06-30 120.72 4.29 10.20
2016-03-31 121.18 32.00 10.10
2015-12-31 126.47 21.38 10.57
2015-09-30 138.96 62.65 9.86
2015-06-30 151.33 69.89 9.70
2015-03-31 180.60 96.28 9.94
2014-12-31 205.58 74.60 9.63
2014-09-30 191.62 14.64 12.27
2014-06-30 168.80 -2.75 16.07
2014-03-31 149.50 -20.53 20.07
2013-12-31 132.56 -8.30 24.43
2013-09-30 168.05 -62.24 28.37
2013-06-30 198.01 -61.82 28.54
2013-03-31 209.96 -83.95 28.17
2012-12-31 234.78 -89.13 28.36
2012-09-30 247.22 -173.97 28.76
2012-06-30 267.65 -174.20 31.88
2012-03-31 298.05 -157.62 36.21
2011-12-31 302.32 -152.77 37.64
2011-09-30 289.92 -30.60 37.70

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Advantage Oil & Gas used its assets less efficiently than the CA Oil and Gas industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's use of capital has not improved over the past 3 years (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Oil and Gas industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Advantage Oil & Gas's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Advantage Oil & Gas's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Advantage Oil & Gas is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Advantage Oil & Gas's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.2x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Advantage Oil & Gas Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago.

TSX:AAV Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CAD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-06-30 1,309.16 250.19 3.85
2018-03-31 1,323.09 237.32 8.69
2017-12-31 1,311.68 208.98 6.92
2017-09-30 1,288.21 156.35
2017-06-30 1,272.73 134.13
2017-03-31 1,252.90 147.78
2016-12-31 1,208.27 153.10
2016-09-30 1,215.55 178.97
2016-06-30 1,205.83 194.03
2016-03-31 1,233.90 202.54
2015-12-31 1,121.95 286.52
2015-09-30 1,107.70 285.71
2015-06-30 1,099.61 277.32
2015-03-31 1,099.09 261.24
2014-12-31 1,094.33 195.91
2014-09-30 1,039.81 156.11
2014-06-30 1,024.81 155.30
2014-03-31 999.41 167.97 6.90
2013-12-31 1,204.41 353.79
2013-09-30 1,211.25 336.97
2013-06-30 1,212.30 343.22
2013-03-31 1,202.68 360.86
2012-12-31 1,208.71 351.62
2012-09-30 1,281.91 345.85
2012-06-30 1,286.22 360.63
2012-03-31 1,230.07 366.89
2011-12-31 1,238.93 308.57
2011-09-30 1,382.64 289.19
  • Advantage Oil & Gas's level of debt (19.1%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (28.3% vs 19.1% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (68.4%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 5.9x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Advantage Oil & Gas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Advantage Oil & Gas dividends.
If you bought CA$2,000 of Advantage Oil & Gas shares you are expected to receive CA$0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Advantage Oil & Gas's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Advantage Oil & Gas's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
TSX:AAV Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 6 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Canada Oil and Gas Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 40 Stocks 3.9%
Canada Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 327 Stocks 3.2%
Canada Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
Canada Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.7%
Canada Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 4.8%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

TSX:AAV Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CA$) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31 0.00 1.00
2019-12-31 0.00 1.00
2018-12-31 0.00 3.00
TSX:AAV Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in CA$) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2011-03-24 0.000 0.000
2011-03-23 0.000 0.000
2011-03-22 0.000 0.000
2010-11-12 0.000 0.000
2010-11-11 0.000 0.000
2010-08-12 0.000 0.000
2010-05-13 0.000 0.000
2010-03-18 0.000 0.000
2010-03-17 0.000 0.000
2009-11-13 0.000 0.000
2009-11-12 0.000 0.000
2009-08-13 0.000 0.000
2009-05-14 0.000 0.000
2009-02-12 0.480 14.986
2009-01-20 0.960 19.719
2008-12-19 0.960 18.071
2008-11-18 1.440 25.580
2008-10-21 1.440 20.644
2008-09-19 1.440 17.627
2008-08-19 1.440 13.342
2008-08-18 1.440 13.261

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Advantage Oil & Gas has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Advantage Oil & Gas's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Advantage Oil & Gas's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Advantage Oil & Gas has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Advantage Oil & Gas's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable for Canada.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Advantage Oil & Gas afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Advantage Oil & Gas's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Andy Mah, image provided by Google.
Andy Mah
COMPENSATION CA$2,995,496
AGE 59
TENURE AS CEO 9.6 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Andy J. Mah has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AOG) since January 27, 2009 and April 21, 2011 respectively. Mr. Mah has over 24 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. He served as the Chief Operating Officer of Longview Oil Corporation from December 15, 2010 to November 07, 2013. He served as the President of Ketch Resources Ltd., Administrator of Ketch Resources Trust since September 2005 to June 2006. He served as Vice President of Production at TAQA North, Ltd. He served as the President and Chief Operating Officer at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AOG) of Advantage Energy Incomes Fund from June 23, 2006 to January 27, 2009. Mr. Mah served as Chief Operating Officer of Ketch Resources Ltd. from January 2005 to September 2005. He served as an Executive Officer and Vice President of Engineering and Operations for TAQA North Ltd. (alternate Name Northrock Resources Ltd.) from August 1998 to January 2005. He serves as a Director of Ketch Resources Ltd. Mr. Mah has been a Director at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd, since June 23, 2006. He served as a Director of TriOil Resources Ltd., since March 4, 2010. He holds a B.Sc. degree in Chemistry from University of Saskatchewan in 1980 and also a B.Sc. Degree in Chemical Engineering from University of Saskatchewan in 1982.

CEO Compensation
  • Andy's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.
  • Andy's compensation is higher than average for a company of this size and profit level.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Advantage Oil & Gas management team in years:

7.3
Average Tenure
54
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Advantage Oil & Gas management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Andy Mah

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
CA$3M
AGE
59
TENURE
9.6 yrs

Craig Blackwood

TITLE
CFO & VP of Finance
COMPENSATION
CA$2M
AGE
49
TENURE
5 yrs

Neil Bokenfohr

TITLE
Senior Vice President
COMPENSATION
CA$2M
TENURE
4.4 yrs

Dave Sterna

TITLE
Vice President of Marketing & Commercial
TENURE
0.3 yrs

Anthony Coombs

TITLE
Controller
TENURE
13.9 yrs

Jay Reid

TITLE
Corporate Secretary
AGE
54
TENURE
17.3 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Advantage Oil & Gas board of directors in years:

7.1
Average Tenure
62.5
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Advantage Oil & Gas board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Ron McIntosh

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
CA$215K
AGE
76
TENURE
4.5 yrs

Andy Mah

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
CA$3M
AGE
59
TENURE
12.2 yrs

Steve Balog

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$125K
AGE
67
TENURE
11 yrs

Paul Haggis

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$138K
AGE
66
TENURE
9.8 yrs

Jill Angevine

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$125K
AGE
50
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Grant Fagerheim

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
CA$125K
AGE
59
TENURE
4.3 yrs
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Who owns this company?
X
Management checks
We assess Advantage Oil & Gas's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap and profit (greater than 0.5% of the company's profit + 0.03% of market cap)? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Advantage Oil & Gas has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

External News
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Simply Wall St News

Is Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd's (TSE:AAV) CEO Paid Enough To Stay Motivated?

Understanding how CEOs are incentivised to run and grow their company is an important aspect of investing in a stock. … Incentives can be in the form of compensation, which should always be structured in a way that promotes value-creation to shareholders. … CEOs leading companies of similar size and profitability

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Tempted To Buy Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) At Its Current PE Ratio?

I am writing today to help inform people who are new to the stock market. … and want to start learning about core concepts of fundamental analysis on practical examples from today's market. … While this makes AAV appear like a great stock to buy, you might change your mind after I explain the assumptions behind the P/E ratio.

Simply Wall St -

Why Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) Delivered An Inferior ROE Compared To The Industry

This article is intended for those of you who are at the beginning of your investing journey. … and want to better understand how you can grow your money by investing in Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV). … With an ROE of 4.75%, Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) returned in-line to its own industry which delivered 6.50% over the past year.

Simply Wall St -

Are Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd's (TSE:AAV) Interest Costs Too High?

How does AAV’s operating cash flow stack up against its debt? … On top of this, AAV has generated cash from operations of CA$186.40M over the same time period, resulting in an operating cash to total debt ratio of 89.20%, indicating that AAV’s operating cash is sufficient to cover its debt. … For AAV, the ratio of 12.87x suggests that interest is comfortably covered, which means that lenders may be less hesitant to lend out more funding as AAV’s high interest coverage is seen as responsible and safe practice.Next Steps: AAV’s high cash coverage and low debt levels indicate its ability to utilise its borrowings efficiently in order to generate ample cash flow.

Simply Wall St -

How Did Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd's (TSE:AAV) 4.75% ROE Fare Against The Industry?

View our latest analysis for Advantage Oil & Gas Peeling the layers of ROE – trisecting a company’s profitability Return on Equity (ROE) weighs Advantage Oil & Gas’s profit against the level of its shareholders’ equity. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders Equity ROE is assessed against cost of equity, which is measured using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) – but let’s not dive into the details of that today. … This is called the Dupont Formula: Dupont Formula ROE = profit margin × asset turnover × financial leverage ROE = (annual net profit ÷ sales) × (sales ÷ assets) × (assets ÷ shareholders’ equity) ROE = annual net profit ÷ shareholders’ equity TSX:AAV Last Perf May 25th 18 Basically, profit margin measures how much of revenue trickles down into earnings which illustrates how efficient the business is with its cost management.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Tempted To Buy Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) At Its Current PE Ratio?

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSX:AAV) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 8.1x, which is lower than the industry average of 15.9x. … Formula Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share P/E Calculation for AAV Price per share = CA$4.16 Earnings per share = CA$0.512 ∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = CA$4.16 ÷ CA$0.512 = 8.1x The P/E ratio itself doesn’t tell you a lot; however, it becomes very insightful when you compare it with other similar companies. … At 8.1x, AAV’s P/E is lower than its industry peers (15.9x).

Simply Wall St -

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV): Time For A Financial Health Check

On top of this, AAV has produced CA$186.40M in operating cash flow over the same time period, leading to an operating cash to total debt ratio of 89.20%, meaning that AAV’s operating cash is sufficient to cover its debt. … We can test if AAV’s debt levels are sustainable by measuring interest payments against earnings of a company. … For AAV, the ratio of 17.75x suggests that interest is comfortably covered, which means that lenders may be inclined to lend more money to the company, as it is seen as safe in terms of payback.Next Steps: AAV’s high cash coverage and low debt levels indicate its ability to utilise its borrowings efficiently in order to generate ample cash flow.

Simply Wall St -

What Does Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd's (TSE:AAV) Share Price Indicate?

A question to answer is whether Advantage Oil & Gas's current trading price of CA$3.99 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? … According to my valuation model, Advantage Oil & Gas seems to be fairly priced at around 10.30% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Advantage Oil & Gas today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. … The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Tempted To Buy Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) Because Of Its PE Ratio?

It compares a stock’s price per share to the stock’s earnings per share. … Formula Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share P/E Calculation for AAV Price per share = CA$5.4 Earnings per share = CA$0.35 ∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = CA$5.4 ÷ CA$0.35 = 15.5x The P/E ratio isn’t a metric you view in isolation and only becomes useful when you compare it against other similar companies. … Since AAV's P/E of 15.5x is lower than its industry peers (16.7x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of AAV's earnings.

Simply Wall St -

Why Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (TSE:AAV) May Not Be As Efficient As Its Industry

Check out our latest analysis for Advantage Oil & Gas Peeling the layers of ROE – trisecting a company’s profitability Return on Equity (ROE) weighs Advantage Oil & Gas’s profit against the level of its shareholders’ equity. … This means Advantage Oil & Gas’s returns actually do not cover its own cost of equity, with a discrepancy of -5.71%. … This is called the Dupont Formula: Dupont Formula ROE = profit margin × asset turnover × financial leverage ROE = (annual net profit ÷ sales) × (sales ÷ assets) × (assets ÷ shareholders’ equity) ROE = annual net profit ÷ shareholders’ equity TSX:AAV Last Perf Dec 26th 17 The first component is profit margin, which measures how much of sales is retained after the company pays for all its expenses.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Map
Description

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces natural gas in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company primarily focuses on the development and delineation of its Montney natural gas and liquids resource that includes 200 net sections of land in Glacier, Alberta. It provides natural gas and natural gas liquids primarily through marketing companies. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Details
Name: Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
AAV
Exchange: TSX
Founded: 2001
CA$716,870,000
186,200,000
Website: http://www.advantageog.com
Address: Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
Millennium Tower,
Suite 300,
Calgary,
Alberta, T2P 5E9,
Canada
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
TSX AAV Common Shares The Toronto Stock Exchange CA CAD 01. May 1992
NYSE AAV Common Shares New York Stock Exchange US USD 01. May 1992
DB 9SA Common Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 01. May 1992
LSE 0UG9 Common Shares London Stock Exchange GB CAD 01. May 1992
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
29
Advantage Oil & Gas employees.
Industry
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
Energy
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2018/08/17 21:25
End of day share price update: 2018/08/17 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2018/08/13
Last earnings update: 2018/06/30
Last annual earnings update: 2017/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.