TSX:AAV

Stock Analysis Report

Advantage Oil & Gas

Executive Summary

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces natural gas and liquids in the Province of Alberta, Canada.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

High growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.

Share Price & News

How has Advantage Oil & Gas's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

11.2%

AAV

0.6%

CA Oil and Gas

0.2%

CA Market


1 Year Return

-33.9%

AAV

-12.0%

CA Oil and Gas

1.2%

CA Market

Return vs Industry: AAV underperformed the Canadian Oil and Gas industry which returned -12% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AAV underperformed the Canadian Market which returned 1.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AAVIndustryMarket
7 Day11.2%0.6%0.2%
30 Day-2.8%-6.4%-2.5%
90 Day10.6%-3.9%-1.5%
1 Year-33.9%-33.9%-8.1%-12.0%4.7%1.2%
3 Year-79.1%-79.1%-16.3%-24.9%14.0%3.8%
5 Year-57.3%-57.3%-21.8%-33.6%26.4%8.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Advantage Oil & Gas's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Advantage Oil & Gas undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

37.9%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Undervalued: AAV (CA$2.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$3.37)

Significantly Undervalued: AAV is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AAV is poor value based on its PE Ratio (19.1x) compared to the Oil and Gas industry average (8.2x).

PE vs Market: AAV is poor value based on its PE Ratio (19.1x) compared to the Canadian market (13.7x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

Low PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AAV's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AAV is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.3x) compared to the CA Oil and Gas industry average (0.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Advantage Oil & Gas forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

31.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAV's forecast earnings growth (31.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AAV's earnings (31.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAV's revenue (24.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAV's revenue (24.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

High Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AAV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Advantage Oil & Gas performed over the past 5 years?

-10.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AAV has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -10.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: AAV's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AAV had negative earnings growth (-30.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Oil and Gas industry average (62.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AAV's Return on Equity (1.5%) is considered low.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: AAV's Return on Assets is below or equal to the Oil and Gas industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: AAV has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Advantage Oil & Gas's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AAV's short term assets (CA$44.8M) exceeds its short term liabilities (CA$25.9M)

Long Term Liabilities: AAV's short term assets (44.8M) do not cover its long term liabilities (400.1M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AAV's debt to equity ratio (20.2%) is considered satisfactory

Reducing Debt: AAV's debt to equity ratio has increased from 15.2% to 20.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AAV's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (62.6%).

Interest Coverage: AAV's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.1x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: AAV has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: AAV's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Advantage Oil & Gas's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%2.0%markettop25%5.9%industryaverage4.9%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AAV's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AAV's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AAV's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AAV's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: AAV is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of AAV's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Canadian market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Advantage Oil & Gas's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

6.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Andy Mah (60yo)

10.8yrs

Tenure

CA$2,745,944

Compensation

Mr. Andy J. Mah has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AOG) since January 27, 2009 and April 21, 2011 respectively. Mr. Mah has over 24 years of experience in the o ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Andy's total compensation ($USD2.08M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD688.87K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Andy's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

6.2yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: AAV's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.2 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

8.3yrs

Average Tenure

63.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: AAV's board of directors are considered experienced (8.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyCA$34,20009 Jan 19
Ronald McIntosh
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Independent Chairman
Shares15,000
Max PriceCA$2.28
SellCA$122,22208 Jan 19
Paul Haggis
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares50,835
Max PriceCA$2.45
BuyCA$112,82908 Jan 19
Paul Haggis
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares50,835
Max PriceCA$2.25
BuyCA$12,47301 Jan 19
Michael Belenkie
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Operating Officer
Chief Operating Officer
Shares6,483
Max PriceCA$1.94
BuyCA$24,50030 Nov 18
Jill Angevine
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares10,000
Max PriceCA$2.45

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Andy Mah (60yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 10.8yrs
    • Compensation: CA$2.75m
  • Neil Bokenfohr

    Senior Vice President

    • Tenure: 5.6yrs
    • Compensation: CA$1.64m
  • Jay Reid (55yo)

    Corporate Secretary

    • Tenure: 18.5yrs
  • Anthony Coombs

    Controller

    • Tenure: 15.1yrs
  • Dave Sterna

    Vice President of Marketing & Commercial

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
    • Compensation: CA$888.52k
  • Craig Blackwood (50yo)

    Chief Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 6.2yrs
    • Compensation: CA$1.36m
  • Mike Belenkie

    Chief Operating Officer

    • Tenure: 1yrs
    • Compensation: CA$990.75k

Board Members

  • Ron McIntosh (77yo)

    Independent Chairman

    • Tenure: 5.7yrs
    • Compensation: CA$190.00k
  • Paul Haggis (67yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 10.9yrs
    • Compensation: CA$137.50k
  • Grant Fagerheim (60yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 5.4yrs
    • Compensation: CA$125.00k
  • Andy Mah (60yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 10.8yrs
    • Compensation: CA$2.75m
  • Jill Angevine (51yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 4.4yrs
    • Compensation: CA$125.00k
  • Steve Balog (68yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 12.2yrs
    • Compensation: CA$125.00k

Company Information

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
  • Ticker: AAV
  • Exchange: TSX
  • Founded: 2001
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: CA$390.644m
  • Shares outstanding: 186.91m
  • Website: https://www.advantageog.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
  • Millennium Tower
  • Suite 2200
  • Calgary
  • Alberta
  • T2P 5E9
  • Canada

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
AAVTSX (The Toronto Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesCACADMay 1992
AAVV.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon SharesUSUSDMay 1992
9SADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURMay 1992
0UG9LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBCADMay 1992

Biography

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces natural gas and liquids in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company focuses on the development and p ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/17 00:10
End of Day Share Price2019/10/16 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.