Are Investors Undervaluing Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD.B) By 36%?

Today we’ll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD.B) as an investment opportunity by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Check out our latest analysis for Alimentation Couche-Tard

Is Alimentation Couche-Tard fairly valued?

We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF ($, Millions) $1.96k $1.83k $1.87k $1.92k $2.06k $2.71k $2.96k $3.17k $3.34k $3.49k
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 9.24% Est @ 7.05% Est @ 5.52% Est @ 4.45%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.72% $1.84k $1.61k $1.54k $1.48k $1.48k $1.83k $1.88k $1.88k $1.86k $1.82k

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $17.22b

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.5b × (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.7% – 1.9%) = US$75b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$75b ÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10 = $38.95b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $56.17b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of $99.54. However, ATD.B’s primary listing is in Canada, and 1 share of ATD.B in USD represents 1.347 ( USD/ CAD) share of TSX:ATD.A, so the intrinsic value per share in CAD is CA$134.05. Compared to the current share price of CA$85.77, the company appears quite undervalued at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

TSX:ATD.B Intrinsic value, May 24th 2019
TSX:ATD.B Intrinsic value, May 24th 2019

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alimentation Couche-Tard as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Alimentation Couche-Tard, I’ve put together three important factors you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does ATD.B have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ATD.B’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ATD.B? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every CA stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.