Klabin S.A. Just Missed EPS By 15%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Klabin S.A. (BVMF:KLBN11) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 5.6% to R$20.39. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of R$21b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit R$1.14 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Klabin are now predicting revenues of R$21.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 56% to R$1.78. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$21.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.01 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Klabin

The consensus price target held steady at R$23.89, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Klabin at R$29.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$18.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Klabin's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.5% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Klabin is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Klabin analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Klabin (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.