Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's (BVMF:CBAV3) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 22, 2022
BOVESPA:CBAV3
Source: Shutterstock

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (BVMF:CBAV3) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 82% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio is:

18% = R$838m ÷ R$4.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every R$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of R$0.18.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

To begin with, Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio seems to have a respectable ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 36%. Further research shows that Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's net income has shrunk at a rate of 18% over the last five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a high ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So there might be other reasons for the earnings to shrink. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

That being said, we compared Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 51% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
BOVESPA:CBAV3 Past Earnings Growth March 22nd 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio's low three-year median payout ratio of 15% (or a retention ratio of 85%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 21% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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