Grupo Mateus S.A. (BVMF:GMAT3) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

The quarterly results for Grupo Mateus S.A. (BVMF:GMAT3) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at R$8.3b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Grupo Mateus' eleven analysts is for revenues of R$38.4b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 13% to R$0.70. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$38.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.69 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Grupo Mateus

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$8.97, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Grupo Mateus analyst has a price target of R$10.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$8.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Grupo Mateus'historical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 25% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Grupo Mateus is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Mateus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Grupo Mateus going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Grupo Mateus' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.