Stock Analysis

70% earnings growth over 1 year has not materialized into gains for Immobel (EBR:IMMO) shareholders over that period

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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by Immobel SA (EBR:IMMO) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 39%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 4.5%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 25% in the last three years. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 14%.

After losing 14% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

View our latest analysis for Immobel

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Even though the Immobel share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

Immobel's dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. We'd be more worried about the fact that revenue fell 3.9% year on year. So it seems likely that the weak revenue is making the market more cautious about the stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ENXTBR:IMMO Earnings and Revenue Growth March 16th 2023

We know that Immobel has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Immobel will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 4.5% in the twelve months, Immobel shareholders did even worse, losing 37% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Immobel (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Belgian exchanges.

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