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Long term investing works well, but it doesn’t always work for each individual stock. We don’t wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Spare a thought for those who held Nyrstar NV (EBR:NYR) for five whole years – as the share price tanked 99%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 96% over the last twelve months. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 62% in the last 90 days.
While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn’t as important as health and happiness.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Nyrstar moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it’s counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
Revenue is actually up 4.5% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
You can see how revenue and earnings have changed over time in the image below, (click on the chart to see cashflow).
It is of course excellent to see how Nyrstar has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Nyrstar’s financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 1.3% in the twelve months, Nyrstar shareholders did even worse, losing 96%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 56% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on BE exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.