ASX:VAH

Stock Analysis Report

Virgin Australia Holdings

Executive Summary

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited engages in the operation of domestic and international passenger and cargo airline business in Australia.


Snowflake Analysis

Imperfect balance sheet with weak fundamentals.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Virgin Australia Holdings's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: VAH's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

16.7%

VAH

-10.8%

AU Airlines

5.0%

AU Market


1 Year Return

-54.6%

VAH

-49.9%

AU Airlines

-19.2%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: VAH underperformed the Australian Airlines industry which returned -49.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VAH underperformed the Australian Market which returned -19.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

VAHIndustryMarket
7 Day16.7%-10.8%5.0%
30 Day-20.0%-34.8%-20.3%
90 Day-45.8%-48.7%-25.8%
1 Year-54.6%-54.6%-48.8%-49.9%-15.6%-19.2%
3 Year-55.8%-55.8%-42.1%-45.5%-3.6%-16.8%
5 Year-84.4%-84.4%-43.6%-48.6%6.6%-17.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Virgin Australia Holdings's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Virgin Australia Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?


In this section, we usually try to help investors determine whether Virgin Australia Holdings is trading at an attractive price based on the cash flow it is expected to produce in the future. But as Virgin Australia Holdings has not provided consistent financial data, and the stock also has no analyst forecast or coverage, its intrinsic value cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst consensus cash flow predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 89% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have a valuation analysis.


Next Steps

  • Take a look at our analysis of VAH’s management and see if the CEO’s compensation is within a reasonable range, who is on the board and if insiders have been trading lately.
  • When valuing a company like this, investors focus more on how they perceive the size of the opportunity, the company's ability to deliver and scale, and the strength of the team. While we are not analysing this type of data at the moment, if you don’t know where to start, we recommend reading through Virgin Australia Holdings regulatory filings.
  • Explore potentially undervalued companies in the Transportation industry.

Future Growth

How is Virgin Australia Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

58.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VAH is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: VAH is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: VAH is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VAH's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VAH's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if VAH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Virgin Australia Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

-26.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VAH is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: VAH is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VAH is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -26% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare VAH's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: VAH is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Airlines industry (5.1%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: VAH's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Virgin Australia Holdings's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: VAH has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: VAH has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: VAH has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: VAH's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: VAH has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: VAH has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets) therefore debt is not covered by short term assets.


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: VAH has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: VAH has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to grow at historical rates of 31.6% each year


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Virgin Australia Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate VAH's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate VAH's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VAH's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if VAH's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: VAH is not paying a notable dividend for the Australian market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of VAH's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Australian market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Paul Scurrah (51yo)

1.08s

Tenure

AU$1,466,250

Compensation

Mr. Paul Darren Scurrah, MAICD, has been the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of the Virgin Australia Holdings Limited since March 25, 2019 and also serves as its Director since March 25, 2019 ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Paul's total compensation ($USD881.11K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD771.28K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Paul's compensation with company performance.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Paul Scurrah
CEO, MD & Director1.08yrsAU$1.47m0.025% A$176.6k
Keith Neate
Chief Financial Officer0.58yrno datano data
Stuart Aggs
Chief Operations Officer0.92yrno datano data
Dayna Field
Chief Legal & Risk Officer2.42yrsno datano data
Lucinda Gemmell
Chief People & Culture Officerno datano datano data
Mike Hockin
General Manager of Engineering Operations9.08yrsAU$670.00kno data
Danielle Keighery
Chief Experience Officer0.67yrno datano data
John MacLeod
Chief Commercial Officer0.50yrno datano data
Sharyn Page
Company Secretary4.17yrsno datano data

1.0yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: VAH's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Paul Scurrah
CEO, MD & Director1.08yrsAU$1.47m0.025% A$176.6k
Kenneth Dean
Independent Non-Executive Director3.33yrsAU$267.00k0.00047% A$3.3k
Trevor Bourne
Independent Non-Executive Director2.25yrsAU$202.00k0.0012% A$8.4k
Elizabeth Bryan
Independent Chairman4.92yrsAU$375.00k0.0027% A$19.1k
Warwick Negus
Non-Executive Director3.25yrsno datano data
Meng Hung Tan
Non-Executive Director4.25yrsno datano data
Judith Swales
Independent Non-Executive Director0.92yrAU$14.00k0.0024% A$16.8k
Ray Gammell
Non-Executive Director1.33yrsno datano data
Angus Houston
Independent Non-Executive Director1.33yrsAU$112.00kno data
Hou Wei
Non-Executive Director0.92yrno datano data

1.8yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: VAH's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: VAH insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
  • Ticker: VAH
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2000
  • Industry: Airlines
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: AU$709.111m
  • Shares outstanding: 8.44b
  • Website: https://www.virginaustralia.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Virgin Australia Holdings Limited
  • 56 Edmondstone Road
  • Bowen Hills
  • Queensland
  • 4006
  • Australia

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
VBHL.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 2003
VAHASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003
VBLDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 2003
VAHCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDDec 2003

Biography

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited engages in the operation of domestic and international passenger and cargo airline business in Australia. The company operates through Virgin Australia Domestic, Virgin Australia International, Velocity, and Tigerair Australia segments. Its aircraft flies to domestic destinations, including regional network, charter, and cargo operations; and international destinations comprising Trans-Pacific, Trans-Tasman, Pacific Island, and South East Asian flying, as well as international cargo operations. The company’s fleet primarily includes Boeing B737 and B777, Airbus A320 and A330, ATR, Embraer E190, and Fokker F100 aircraft. It also operates a frequent flyer program. The company serves corporate, government, leisure, low cost, regional, charter travelers, and air freight customers. It has strategic alliances with Air New Zealand Limited, Delta Air Lines Inc., Etihad Airways P.J.S.C., Singapore Airlines Limited, and HNA Aviation Group. The company was formerly known as Virgin Blue Holdings Limited and changed its name to Virgin Australia Holdings Limited in 2011. Virgin Australia Holdings Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Bowen Hills, Australia. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/04/04 14:10
End of Day Share Price2020/04/03 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.