Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX:DBI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of DBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DBI (A$2.03) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$2.25)

DBI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	3/6

DBI Stock Overview

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited owns the lease of and right to operate the Dalrymple Bay terminal, a coal export metallurgical coal facility in Bowen Basin in Queensland.

Rewards

Trading at 9.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 21.1% per year for the next 3 years

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Dividend of 8.87% is not well covered by earnings

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Competitors

Alliance Aviation Services

ASX:AQZ

AU$578.6m

Atlas Arteria

ASX:ALX

AU$7.8b

K&S

ASX:KSC

AU$233.3m

Alexandria Container&Cargo Handling

CASE:ALCN

ج.م10.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$2.03
52 Week High	AU$2.39
52 Week Low	AU$1.90
Beta	0
1 Month Change	1.00%
3 Month Change	-5.58%
1 Year Change	-2.87%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-6.02%

Shareholder Returns

	DBI	AU Infrastructure	AU Market
7D	3.0%	-0.7%	-0.7%
1Y	-2.9%	1.1%	-10.8%

Return vs Industry: DBI underperformed the Australian Infrastructure industry which returned 1.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: DBI exceeded the Australian Market which returned -10.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is DBI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
DBI volatility
DBI Average Weekly Movement	3.3%
Infrastructure Industry Average Movement	3.3%
Market Average Movement	10.1%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.5%

Stable Share Price: DBI is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: DBI's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2020	n/a	Anthony Timbrell	https://www.dbinfrastructure.com.au

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited owns the lease of and right to operate the Dalrymple Bay terminal, a coal export metallurgical coal facility in Bowen Basin in Queensland. The company provides terminal infrastructure and services for producers and consumers of Australian coal exports. Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Fundamentals Summary

How do Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
DBI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$1.01b
Earnings (TTM)	AU$129.08m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$505.07m

7.8x

P/E Ratio

2.0x

P/S Ratio

Is DBI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
DBI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$505.07m
Cost of Revenue	AU$302.13m
Gross Profit	AU$202.94m
Other Expenses	AU$73.86m
Earnings	AU$129.08m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 29, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.26
Gross Margin	40.18%
Net Profit Margin	25.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio	221.5%

How did DBI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.9%

Current Dividend Yield

69%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is DBI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DBI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for DBI. This is calculated by dividing DBI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is DBI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$1.01b

DBI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17.7x
PEG Ratio	-0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DBI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

DBI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for DBI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	39.5x
AQZ Alliance Aviation Services	84.5x	66.6%	AU$578.6m
ALX Atlas Arteria	42.5x	23.8%	AU$7.8b
KSC K&S	24.7x	n/a	AU$233.3m
ALCN Alexandria Container&Cargo Handling	6.4x	4.1%	ج.م10.7b
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure	7.8x	-21.1%	AU$1.0b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (39.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DBI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Infrastructure Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the Global Infrastructure industry average (12.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DBI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DBI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.8x
Fair PE Ratio	12.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DBI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DBI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DBI (A$2.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DBI is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: DBI's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-21.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DBI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-21.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: DBI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-21.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DBI's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: DBI's revenue (1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (5.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DBI's revenue (1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DBI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.4%).

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Past Performance

How has Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

79.5%

Last years revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: DBI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: DBI became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: DBI has become profitable over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: DBI has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: DBI has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Infrastructure industry (23.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: DBI's Return on Equity (12.2%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: DBI's short term assets (A$86.2M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$76.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: DBI's short term assets (A$86.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities (A$2.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: DBI's net debt to equity ratio (217.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if DBI's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: DBI's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (4.7%).

Interest Coverage: DBI's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

8.87%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: DBI's dividend (8.87%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.71%).

High Dividend: DBI's dividend (8.87%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.86%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether DBI's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if DBI's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (69.4%), DBI's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (145.3%), DBI's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Anthony Timbrell

1.58yrs

Tenure

AU$1,435,532

Compensation

Mr. Anthony Timbrell is Chief Executive Officer at Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited since December 8, 2010 and serves as its Executive Director since August 7, 2020. He joined DBIM in 2008 and was appo...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Anthony's total compensation ($USD971.86K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD1.04M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Anthony's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: DBI's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: DBI's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/06 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/06 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31