We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Aurizon Holdings Valuation

Is AZJ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZJ?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AZJ key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.2x
PEG Ratio3.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AZJ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.7x
QUB Qube Holdings
36.3x12.4%AU$4.9b
ALX Atlas Arteria
39.2x35.6%AU$10.2b
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
53.9x31.6%AU$1.2b
9009 Keisei Electric Railway
33.5x18.0%JP¥633.9b
AZJ Aurizon Holdings
13.4x3.9%AU$6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (40.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AZJ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.3%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (13.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZJ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZJ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio20.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AZJ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZJ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZJ (A$3.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZJ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AZJ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.73
AU$3.99
+6.9%
11.3%AU$4.88AU$3.36n/a15
Nov ’23AU$3.68
AU$3.99
+8.4%
11.3%AU$4.88AU$3.36n/a15
Oct ’23AU$3.45
AU$4.00
+16.0%
11.2%AU$4.88AU$3.36n/a15
Sep ’23AU$3.71
AU$3.96
+6.7%
11.0%AU$4.88AU$3.36n/a14
Aug ’23AU$4.10
AU$3.96
-3.5%
12.0%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
Jul ’23AU$3.83
AU$3.95
+3.2%
12.1%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
Jun ’23AU$4.03
AU$3.93
-2.4%
12.3%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
May ’23AU$4.03
AU$3.91
-3.1%
12.5%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
Apr ’23AU$3.70
AU$3.91
+5.6%
12.5%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
Mar ’23AU$3.52
AU$3.94
+11.9%
11.9%AU$5.04AU$3.35n/a13
Feb ’23AU$3.57
AU$3.95
+10.7%
13.8%AU$5.23AU$3.30n/a12
Jan ’23AU$3.49
AU$3.95
+13.1%
15.0%AU$5.23AU$3.10n/a11
Dec ’22AU$3.34
AU$4.03
+20.7%
13.7%AU$5.23AU$3.30n/a10
Nov ’22AU$3.40
AU$4.19
+23.1%
11.7%AU$5.23AU$3.60AU$3.689
Oct ’22AU$3.81
AU$4.50
+18.1%
9.8%AU$5.30AU$3.92AU$3.4511
Sep ’22AU$3.79
AU$4.49
+18.5%
10.0%AU$5.30AU$3.92AU$3.7111
Aug ’22AU$3.86
AU$4.53
+17.3%
11.3%AU$5.55AU$4.00AU$4.1011
Jul ’22AU$3.73
AU$4.50
+20.7%
12.0%AU$5.55AU$3.75AU$3.8311
Jun ’22AU$3.62
AU$4.58
+26.4%
11.0%AU$5.55AU$3.75AU$4.0311
May ’22AU$3.75
AU$4.58
+22.0%
11.0%AU$5.55AU$3.75AU$4.0311
Apr ’22AU$3.86
AU$4.53
+17.3%
11.5%AU$5.55AU$3.66AU$3.7012
Mar ’22AU$3.77
AU$4.65
+23.3%
12.2%AU$5.55AU$3.66AU$3.5214
Feb ’22AU$3.73
AU$4.95
+32.8%
12.1%AU$5.56AU$3.65AU$3.5712
Jan ’22AU$3.90
AU$5.11
+31.1%
9.2%AU$5.56AU$4.18AU$3.4912
Dec ’21AU$4.21
AU$5.13
+21.8%
9.0%AU$5.60AU$4.18AU$3.3412
Nov ’21AU$3.77
AU$5.12
+35.7%
10.5%AU$5.77AU$4.10AU$3.4012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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