Xero Limited (ASX:XRO), a software company based in New Zealand, saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the ASX. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Xero’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity. Check out our latest analysis for Xero
Is Xero still cheap?Xero is currently overpriced based on my relative valuation model. I’ve used the price-to-book ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows, and its earnings doesn’t seem to reflect its true value. The stock’s ratio of 21.64x is currently well-above the industry average of 4.72x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Xero’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Xero look like?Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. In the upcoming year, Xero’s earnings are expected to increase by 79.14%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? XRO’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe XRO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on XRO for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for XRO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Xero. You can find everything you need to know about Xero in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Xero, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.