Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Macquarie Technology Group Limited's (ASX:MAQ) Shares

Macquarie Technology Group Limited's (ASX:MAQ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 45.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 21x and even P/E's below 12x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Macquarie Technology Group could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring earnings performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Macquarie Technology Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Macquarie Technology Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Enough Growth For Macquarie Technology Group?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Macquarie Technology Group would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. However, a few strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 244% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 5.0% each year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 18% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we find it concerning that Macquarie Technology Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Macquarie Technology Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Macquarie Technology Group with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Macquarie Technology Group. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.