Universal Store Holdings (ASX:UNI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of UNI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

UNI (A$4.68) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$23.83)

UNI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

UNI Stock Overview

Universal Store Holdings Limited operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel for men, women, and kids in Australia.

Rewards

Trading at 80.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 14.65% per year

Earnings grew by 22.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Universal Store Holdings Competitors

Best&Less Group Holdings

ASX:BST

AU$293.4m

City Chic Collective

ASX:CCX

AU$536.2m

Accent Group

ASX:AX1

AU$752.9m

Premier Investments

ASX:PMV

AU$3.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Universal Store Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$4.68
52 Week High	AU$8.56
52 Week Low	AU$3.07
Beta	0
1 Month Change	16.71%
3 Month Change	-2.30%
1 Year Change	-33.14%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	4.00%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 15

Universal Store Holdings (ASX:UNI) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...

Shareholder Returns

	UNI	AU Specialty Retail	AU Market
7D	-2.9%	2.9%	1.0%
1Y	-33.1%	-19.1%	-7.9%

Return vs Industry: UNI underperformed the Australian Specialty Retail industry which returned -19.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: UNI underperformed the Australian Market which returned -7.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is UNI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
UNI volatility
UNI Average Weekly Movement	9.8%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	6.5%
Market Average Movement	10.6%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	17.5%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: UNI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: UNI's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	n/a	Dorothy Barbery	https://www.universalstore.com

Universal Store Holdings Limited operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel for men, women, and kids in Australia. The company’s products comprise tops and shirts, overshirts, t-shirts and tank tops, jeans, hoodies and sweaters, dresses, playsuits, sets and coordinates, jumpers and knits, coats and jackets, pants, skirts, shorts, underwear, and denim products; boots, Havaianas, heels, platform shoes, slides and sandals, sneakers, and shoe care and laces; and accessories, such as bags, belts, books, games, gift cards, tech products, party essentials, beauty products, hair clips, hats, beanies, bucket hats, caps, fedoras and boaters, earrings, necklaces, sunglasses, chains, shoe care products and laces, wallets, cardholders, and watches. It offers products through 65 stores, as well as online stores.

Universal Store Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Universal Store Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
UNI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$342.56m
Earnings (TTM)	AU$22.03m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$201.11m

15.5x

P/E Ratio

1.7x

P/S Ratio

Is UNI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
UNI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$201.11m
Cost of Revenue	AU$83.24m
Gross Profit	AU$117.87m
Other Expenses	AU$95.83m
Earnings	AU$22.03m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 26, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.30
Gross Margin	58.61%
Net Profit Margin	10.95%
Debt/Equity Ratio	13.4%

How did UNI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.7%

Current Dividend Yield

64%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is UNI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UNI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for UNI. This is calculated by dividing UNI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is UNI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	AU$342.56m

UNI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.1x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UNI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

UNI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for UNI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.9x
BST Best&Less Group Holdings	8.8x	12.5%	AU$293.4m
CCX City Chic Collective	25.8x	19.8%	AU$536.2m
AX1 Accent Group	19.3x	19.1%	AU$752.9m
PMV Premier Investments	13.8x	1.3%	AU$3.4b
UNI Universal Store Holdings	15.5x	14.7%	AU$342.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UNI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UNI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UNI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the Australian Specialty Retail industry average (10.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UNI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UNI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.5x
Fair PE Ratio	14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UNI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UNI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UNI (A$4.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$23.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UNI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Universal Store Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

14.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: UNI's forecast earnings growth (14.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: UNI's earnings (14.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: UNI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: UNI's revenue (11.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: UNI's revenue (11.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: UNI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.2%)

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Past Performance

How has Universal Store Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

23.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: UNI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: UNI's current net profit margins (11%) are higher than last year (10.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: UNI's earnings have grown significantly by 23.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: UNI's earnings growth over the past year (22.8%) is below its 5-year average (23.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: UNI earnings growth over the past year (22.8%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 22.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: UNI's Return on Equity (19.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Universal Store Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: UNI's short term assets (A$67.7M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$55.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: UNI's short term assets (A$67.7M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$58.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: UNI has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if UNI's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: UNI's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (304.3%).

Interest Coverage: UNI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Universal Store Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

4.70%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: UNI's dividend (4.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.62%).

High Dividend: UNI's dividend (4.7%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.24%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether UNI's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if UNI's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (63.9%), UNI's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (43%), UNI's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Dorothy Barbery

no data

Tenure

AU$820,401

Compensation

Ms. Alice Barbery, also known as Dorothy, serves as Chief Executive Officer at Universal Store Holdings Limited and serves as its Executive Director since October 27, 2020.

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dorothy's total compensation ($USD565.56K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD564.46K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Dorothy's compensation with company performance.

Board Members

Experienced Board: UNI's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30