ASX:RBL

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Redbubble Limited operates as an online marketplace that facilitates the sale and purchase of art and designs on a range of products between independent creatives and consumers.

Rewards

Trading at 45.1% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 65.31% per year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year



Snowflake Analysis

Adequate balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Redbubble's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: RBL's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.2%

RBL

5.3%

AU Online Retail

2.0%

AU Market


1 Year Return

21.7%

RBL

34.6%

AU Online Retail

19.8%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: RBL underperformed the Australian Online Retail industry which returned 41.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: RBL exceeded the Australian Market which returned 20.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

RBLIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.2%5.3%2.0%
30 Day8.1%11.4%3.5%
90 Day-29.0%23.2%5.8%
1 Year21.7%21.7%36.5%34.6%25.2%19.8%
3 Year6.2%5.4%60.7%50.2%39.6%20.9%
5 Yearn/a62.2%52.5%61.8%25.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Redbubble's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Redbubble undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

47.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: RBL (A$1.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RBL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: RBL is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Online Retail industry average.

PE vs Market: RBL is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Australian market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate RBL's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: RBL is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4.5x) compared to the AU Online Retail industry average (3.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Redbubble forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

65.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: RBL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: RBL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: RBL's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: RBL's revenue (16% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (3.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: RBL's revenue (16% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: RBL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.9%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Redbubble performed over the past 5 years?

-15.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: RBL is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: RBL is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: RBL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -15.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare RBL's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: RBL is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Online Retail industry (-1.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: RBL has a negative Return on Equity (-43.74%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Redbubble's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: RBL's short term assets (A$36.7M) do not cover its short term liabilities (A$47.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: RBL's short term assets (A$36.7M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$2.2M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: RBL is debt free.

Reducing Debt: RBL has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 0.9%.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: RBL has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if RBL's debt is covered by short term assets.


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: RBL has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if RBL has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Redbubble's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%2.3%markettop25%5.4%industryaverage0.9%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate RBL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate RBL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if RBL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if RBL's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of RBL's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Australian market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Redbubble's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Barry Newstead 0

1.4yrs

Tenure

AU$1,765,297

Compensation

Mr. Barry Newstead has been the Chief Executive Officer, Managing Director and Director of Redbubble Limited since August 1, 2018. He served as the Chief Operating Officer of Redbubble Limited until August ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Barry's total compensation ($USD1.22M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD509.47K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Barry's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Management Age and Tenure

2.3yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: RBL's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

1.9yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Board: RBL's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: RBL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyAU$12,999,61614 Jan 20
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares11,919,030
Max PriceAU$1.16
SellAU$4,870,40905 Dec 19
Osmium Partners, LLC
EntityCompany
Shares2,643,916
Max PriceAU$1.85
BuyAU$43,16905 Dec 19
Osmium Partners, LLC
EntityCompany
Shares24,000
Max PriceAU$1.81
SellAU$1,067,80013 Nov 19
Richard Cawsey
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Chair of the Board
Shares562,000
Max PriceAU$1.90
SellAU$11,579,99601 Nov 19
Martin Hosking
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Non-Executive Director
Shares6,000,000
Max PriceAU$1.93
BuyAU$5,033,83531 Oct 19
Greencape Capital Pty Ltd
EntityCompany
Shares3,021,026
Max PriceAU$1.67
BuyAU$5,644,49224 Sep 19
Greencape Capital Pty Ltd
EntityCompany
Shares4,103,177
Max PriceAU$1.38
BuyAU$1,171,77002 Aug 19
Greencape Capital Pty Ltd
EntityCompany
Shares878,370
Max PriceAU$1.37
BuyAU$3,32222 Jul 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares3,724
Max PriceAU$0.89
SellAU$950,96622 Jul 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares1,023,893
Max PriceAU$0.93
BuyAU$111,67402 Jul 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares125,736
Max PriceAU$0.89
SellAU$1,059,78227 May 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares1,007,130
Max PriceAU$1.05
BuyAU$2,801,98019 May 19
Osmium Partners, LLC
EntityCompany
Shares2,665,233
Max PriceAU$1.06
BuyAU$2,671,14603 May 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares2,807,824
Max PriceAU$0.95
SellAU$3,941,55603 May 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares3,767,411
Max PriceAU$1.05
SellAU$3,235,71601 Apr 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares3,064,636
Max PriceAU$1.17
BuyAU$143,93101 Apr 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares144,329
Max PriceAU$1.01
BuyAU$3,023,48031 Mar 19
Osmium Partners, LLC
EntityCompany
Shares2,875,597
Max PriceAU$1.06
BuyAU$2,742,16118 Feb 19
Perennial Value Management Limited
EntityCompany
Shares2,955,025
Max PriceAU$1.01
BuyAU$3,485,44225 Jan 19
Osmium Partners, LLC
EntityCompany
Shares3,747,270
Max PriceAU$0.97

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 13.9%.


Management Team

  • Barry Newstead

    MD, CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 1.4yrs
    • Compensation: AU$1.77m
  • Jorie Waterman

    Chief Marketing Officer

    • Tenure: 2.3yrs
  • Nick Kenn

    Chief Product Officer

    • Corina Davis

      Executive VP of Business Development

      • Vanessa Freeman

        Chief People & Culture Officer

        • Tenure: 4.4yrs
      • Arnaud Deshais

        Chief Supply Chain Officer

        • Eric Morse

          Senior VP of Content Partnerships & GM of Global Licensing

          • Tenure: 2.3yrs
        • Louise Lambeth

          Head of Investor Relations

          • Emma Clark

            Chief Financial Officer

            • Tenure: 0.6yrs
            • Compensation: AU$465.76k
          • Daniel Vydra

            Chief Technology Officer


            Board Members

            • Martin Hosking

              Non-Executive Director

              • Compensation: AU$1.23m
            • Greg Lockwood

              Independent Non-Executive Director

              • Tenure: 4.6yrs
            • Barry Newstead

              MD, CEO & Director

              • Tenure: 1.4yrs
              • Compensation: AU$1.77m
            • Richard Cawsey (60yo)

              Chair of the Board

              • Compensation: AU$197.66k
            • Jenny MacDonald

              Independent Non-Executive Director

              • Tenure: 1.9yrs
              • Compensation: AU$99.57k
            • Anne Ward (59yo)

              Independent Non-Executive Director

              • Tenure: 1.8yrs
              • Compensation: AU$114.09k

            Company Information

            Redbubble Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


            Key Information

            • Name: Redbubble Limited
            • Ticker: RBL
            • Exchange: ASX
            • Founded: 2006
            • Industry: Internet and Direct Marketing Retail
            • Sector: Retail
            • Market Cap: AU$275.376m
            • Shares outstanding: 258.57m
            • Website: https://www.redbubble.com

            Number of Employees


            Location

            • Redbubble Limited
            • 271 Collins Street
            • Level 3
            • Melbourne
            • Victoria
            • 3000
            • Australia

            Listings

            TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
            RBLASX (Australian Securities Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDMay 2016
            RBLCHIA (Chi-X Australia)YesOrdinary SharesAUAUDMay 2016
            RDBB.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDMay 2016

            Biography

            Redbubble Limited operates as an online marketplace that facilitates the sale and purchase of art and designs on a range of products between independent creatives and consumers. The company provides sale, marketing, and distribution services to facilitate the sale of goods from artists to those who want to purchase goods bearing the artists’ designs. It enables 700,000 independent artists to sell their designs, including apparel, stationery, housewares, bags, wall art, and others. The company offers its services through its Website at Redbubble.com, TeePublic.com, and three foreign language sites in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Redbubble Limited was founded in 2006 and is based in Melbourne, Australia. 


            Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

            All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
            DataLast Updated (UTC time)
            Company Analysis2020/01/18 10:41
            End of Day Share Price2020/01/17 00:00
            Earnings2019/06/30
            Annual Earnings2019/06/30


            Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.