ASX:KGN

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

AU$1.2b

Last Updated

2021/06/24 08:02 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Share Price & News

How has Kogan.com's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: KGN is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: KGN's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.7%

KGN

1.4%

AU Online Retail

-0.8%

AU Market


1 Year Return

-27.5%

KGN

28.7%

AU Online Retail

29.1%

AU Market

Return vs Industry: KGN underperformed the Australian Online Retail industry which returned 28.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KGN underperformed the Australian Market which returned 29.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

KGNIndustryMarket
7 Day0.7%1.4%-0.8%
30 Day2.1%2.0%2.7%
90 Day-17.8%-11.0%6.7%
1 Year-26.2%-27.5%29.9%28.7%33.3%29.1%
3 Year72.3%60.7%127.3%119.5%32.9%17.2%
5 Yearn/a59.5%35.0%69.8%38.1%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Kogan.com's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Kogan.com undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

26.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: KGN (A$10.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$14.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: KGN is good value based on its PE Ratio (26.1x) compared to the Australian Online Retail industry average (38.7x).

PE vs Market: KGN is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.1x) compared to the Australian market (20.4x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: KGN is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.9x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: KGN is good value based on its PB Ratio (5.8x) compared to the AU Online Retail industry average (12x).


Future Growth

How is Kogan.com forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

27.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KGN's forecast earnings growth (27.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: KGN's earnings (27.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KGN's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KGN's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KGN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (29.1%)


Past Performance

How has Kogan.com performed over the past 5 years?

54.3%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KGN has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: KGN's current net profit margins (6%) are higher than last year (4.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KGN has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 54.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: KGN's earnings growth over the past year (120.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (54.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: KGN earnings growth over the past year (120.8%) exceeded the Online Retail industry 65.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: KGN's Return on Equity (20.8%) is considered high.


Financial Health

How is Kogan.com's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: KGN's short term assets (A$314.9M) exceed its short term liabilities (A$206.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: KGN's short term assets (A$314.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (A$9.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: KGN's debt to equity ratio (1.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: KGN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.1% to 1.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: KGN's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (179%).

Interest Coverage: KGN earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Kogan.com current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.93%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: KGN's dividend (1.93%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (1.99%).

High Dividend: KGN's dividend (1.93%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (5.04%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, KGN has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: KGN's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 4 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (71%), KGN's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: KGN's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (70.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.1yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Ruslan Kogan

15.42yrs

Tenure

AU$594,317

Compensation

Mr. Ruslan Kogan, BBS founded Kogan.Com Limited in 2006. Mr. Kogan has been the Chief Executive Officer of Kogan.Com Limited since 2006 and serves as its Executive Director and Managing Director. Prior to ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ruslan's total compensation ($USD450.72K) is below average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD909.61K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ruslan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Board Members

Experienced Board: KGN's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.9%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Kogan.com Ltd's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Kogan.com Ltd
  • Ticker: KGN
  • Exchange: ASX
  • Founded: 2006
  • Industry: Internet and Direct Marketing Retail
  • Sector: Retail
  • Market Cap: AU$1.157b
  • Shares outstanding: 106.56m
  • Website: https://www.kogancorporate.com

Location

  • Kogan.com Ltd
  • 139 Gladstone Street
  • South Melbourne
  • Melbourne
  • Victoria
  • 3205
  • Australia

Listings


Biography

Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others;...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/06/24 08:02
End of Day Share Price2021/06/23 00:00
Earnings2020/12/31
Annual Earnings2020/06/30


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.